Unxpected Returns is a modern investor must read. Investing in a secular bear market requires much more knowledge than the "buy and hold" strategy of the 80's and 90's. If you desire the type of returns needed to accumulate wealth and retire secure you need to understand the concepts in Unexpected Returns.

This work must be read in conjunction with the crestmont research website which provides updates to the charts illustrated in the book. A great analysis on investing in bear markets. These stratigies coupled with absolute return investing should be part of many portfolios in these challanging economic times. If this book was revised to reflect current market conditions it could be one of the most important works on investment. Michael J Gorman JD,CPA,CHfC

Everyone should be giving this as a gift because most everyone has no idea the realities of investing. If everyone mindlessly throws money into the market, statistically, this is abnormal and "The Wolves Have Access To The Pocketbooks Of The Sheep".

As an MBA, I always assumed that markets give a fixed return (as we average the returns over a period). I never thought about volatility and economic conditions explicitly. I used to hate volatility as it makes the world uncertain. After reading this book I am embracing volatility and realized that you can make unexpected returns because of the volatility. I used some the techniques I learned in MBA (@Risk, Solver) to come up with financial models and PROBABILITY of returns.

Simply I can not put it down.

One of my favorites. I'd recommend this book for any novice investor or student of economics. Offers a unique approach to understanding the secular cycles without going into anything unusual such as the kondratieff wave theory. This book provides a good understanding of both, bull and bear markets with excellent supporting data and charts. You may not care for this book if you're overly optimistic or overly bearish.

I ordered this book after seeing Mr. Easterling on TV because he had reinforced some of my own thoughts and suspicions. Without a doubt the author makes a compelling case for why the U.S. stock and bond markets are likely to underperform for the foreseeable future. This is not an easy or fast read, but definately well worth the time of anyone who wants to understand the fundamentals so they can be better positioned for investing successfully.

Ed Easterling gets right to the matter at hand - what actually happens to individual investors and not what is supposed to happen given the vortex of hyporbole one finds in the financial media.

Ed un-links actual corporate performance from stock price and shows that stock price has a life of its own. Citing nominal and inflation corrected GDP, for periods from the 60s up to the late 90s, Ed shows that while GDP grows fairly consistently, stock price is all over the place, largely driven by investor sentiment in response to inflation.

The key point however, is not so much to game the system, but to understand that the financial services mantra that large cap stocks grow at average 12% per year and small caps grow at 14% per year over any sustained investment period, is not only unproven, but demonstrably proven wrong. Very simply, time alone doesn't do it.

Ed's thesis is that there are three sources of return in a stock: stock price appreciation through actual corporate growth, dividends, and increase in P/E. During inflationary or deflationary periods, which are destabilizing, P/E will decline. During sustained periods of annual inflation of 3%, or slightly less, P/E will rise in response to perceived stability. Times are good, investors bid stocks up.

It would be difficult in a sustained low-inflation environment to succeed as a relative return investor, because P/Es are near their tops. In such an environment, one must turn to absolute return investing and look for bargains.

The book is well illustrated with historical charts and graphs to illustrate the concepts. In addition, Ed's websight, www.crestmontresearch.com provides updated charts. The mother of all charts however, is the "Stock Market Matrix." In this chart, you are invited to pick any historical date and investment span and see for yourself not what shoulda, woulda, coulda happened, but what actually did happen. The results are quite enlightening.

This book brings fresh and unconventional ideas to the table. The author challenges the very popular buy and hold strategy, and presents a very good case on how using it in the next few years might not be very rewarding.

His idea is that we are entering a secular bear market, similar to the one that occurred in the 60s-70s. A secular bear market is a long period (10-20 years) where the stock market doesn't perform very well. Although it might have its ups and downs, the buy and hold strategy in this environment leads to ... unexpected returns. As an example, buying and holding in the 60s with a 10-15 year time frame would lead to almost 0% returns.

Other reviewers complain that if they listened to the author they would have missed the 2004-2007 bull market. But the author is really trying to say that if you stay invested at all times for the next 10-15 years, you might not gain as much as you are expecting. If, instead, you are trying to capitalize on bull markets, and selling in the bear markets, you're not buying and holding.

Many books advocate the buy and hold strategy. I think everyone should at least read some books that challenge this idea, and this one is a very good place to start.

I am not in the financial business, but purchased this book to help me just understand the market for my 401K and mutual funds. After reading it I am starting to feel like I have an understanding of what I'm looking for to start to purchase stocks in companies. This book explained everything perfect.

Unexpected return has an excellent compilation of historical data and does a good job of presenting the case for secular bull and bear markets and the components that influence market results over the longer term. However, it goes badly when the author attempts to provide a formula to predict the future market. I read this book in early 2007. If you had followed the authors predictions, you would have missed out on close to a 20% increase in the market (inlcuding dividends) from the time he wrote it. That is the risk you take when trying to simply apply regression analysis to the future (remember the demise of Long-Term Capital Management!). Overall, I would still read the book for historical content and perspective, but if you think you can predict the market with simple formulas ... forget it.

Excellent book on the market. It is not a 'How to get rich fast' book, but one that explains the dynamics of the stock market and how the returns correlate.

The tables, graphs, and figures are extremely well done and the book is well laid out.

If you want to learn about the market (or playing field of the market) this is the book for you. It re-enforced a lot of the views of the market for me.

This is a book that was referred to me on the chatroom at Dorsey Wright Associates. [...] you can view his information. I am a CFP, CIMC and have an MBA infinance form Pepperdine University CA. The information is layed out so anyone can understand it. Yes I do make recommendations on where the risk is in the market and how to avoid most of that risk. Dorsey Wright helps in that regurd.
Charles W Shirey
[...]

Ed Easterling's "Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles"(2005)deals with the issue of bullish and bearish "seasons" in the stock market--such as the U.S. bear markets of 1901 to 1920, 1929-1932(the Great Crash)and 1966 to 1981 and bull markets from 1921 to 1928 (the Roaring 20's)and 1982 to 1999.

Easterling's somewhat dry title belies a rich and important book. Here is the argument in a nutshell:

For the investment horizons that matter to most investors, the time of entry and exit is critical. More specifically, buying into a market with a low price/earnings (P/E) ratio average and selling into a market with a high average P/E has produces by far the best returns, both absolutely and relatively, as well as the most favorable dispersion of returns and the fewest negative return periods.

Average P/E's rise (leading to outsize investment returns) when the economy moves toward a persistent low rate of inflation, of which about 1% per annum is optimal, from either a high level of inflation or deflation. [The same trend that is bullish for stocks is also bullish for bonds, an asset class that Easterling also treats, but with less detail than stocks.] In such an environment, the increasing P/E's attached to stocks multiply the effects of rising market earnings.

These findings imply says Easterling, an activist investment strategy: "rowing," not "sailing." An investor must make strenuous efforts to respond to prevailing market conditions. As a rule of thumb, average P/E's in the 20 times plus area (such as the U.S. equity market now sports) are not sustainable for long except under ideal conditions. On the other hand, market average P/E's of around 10 times or lower present a compelling opportunity for entry.

One problem facing those who would follow Easterling is that it may be difficult while in the midst of a long-term cycle to know when it is reaching a turning point. That will only be obvious in retrospect. Then too, many investors will not feel the luxury to stay out of the market for very long periods or to go short. The practice of spreading constant investment amounts over time intervals, called "dollar cost averaging," may in part address these issues.

Easterling made the prediction in his book, released in April 2005, that then prevailing P/E's implied a coming period of lackluster returns in U.S. stock averages.

Easterling acknowledges his debt to Robert Schiller of Yale for source data and data series method. His thesis is consistent with Schiller's cautionary views and provides an important corrective to the optimistic gloss of Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run," at least for investment horizons going out to about 20 years. Siegel's work remains valid and important to understand for those with investment horizons going out longer than this, as well as for those to whom the criterion is not optimal timing but rather probable outpeformance of stocks compared to alternative investment in US Treasury bills and bonds.

Easterling founded and is president of Crestmont Holdings, LLC, a Dallas-based fund of hedge funds manager. He publishes research at his CrestmontResearch site. The author believes his loftily named "financial physics" lend support to a diversified fund of funds strategy--an investment approach he lauds, while giving scant attention to the heavy burden of overhead costs it generally entails.

Andrew Szabo
(Greenwich Financial Management)

One reviewer of this book said he's sick of investing tomes, they offer no practical benefit except to enrich the authors, who usually run money management firms for which the books are meant to recruit clients.

And of course those firms charge hefty fees, even if their timing is slightly off (say, a few years or so).

Another reviewer loved the book because he realizes he is going to have to work harder to invest successfully over coming years. If only he had read the book in 1999.

What is not fully understood by many investors is that the money game is run by Wall Streeters with whom you cannot compete and beat over time. Some of the smartest people in the world work on the Street and they are not sharing what they know with anybody. But they want you in the game. They need you. They take care of their biggest clients (and I mean really big) and every client who is not big is late to the table and last to leave, usually at a loss. Because smaller clients start buying what the big players are just starting to sell. Which is why the big holders sell in dribs and drabs over time. Every winning trade requires a losing trade. Too bad, past results are no etc. etc.

Try to work the market independently against the big guns and you will eventually come to know the meaning of whipsaw. And its consequences. Everybody thinks they can get out in time. Trouble is, when markets tank--stock market, real estate markets--there is no getting out because there are no buyers. It's a free fall without a parachute. Many real estate speculators will learn this in the coming year.

The author of this book, Ed Eastering, is well respected and can give you a good view of how the game works. Which is useful in a textbook kind of way. And he attempts to lay out some tips for the solo investor.

Trouble is, timing IS everything and the information you need to time the market is not going to be found in any book. Or any proprietary system being peddled over the internet. If it worked that well they would not be selling it to you.

So what's the answer?

Contrarian investing? When everybody is long, go short, and vice versa? Good idea but it requires a discipline that can tear apart the innards of a veteran Wall Street trader. It is just not wired into the systems of most people to pull it off. And reliable sell signals are about as hard to find as a legitimate 1918 Inverted Jenny.

Another possibility: do what most of the really rich usually do, stuff it into long-term U.S. Treasuries that pay a fixed interest rate and guarantee the principal at maturity. Of course, you have to keep them for the long term, which the really rich can afford to do. Can you? If not, you may sell the bond at a loss that negates the interest you were paid. So you're stuck with safe U.S. short-term notes which mature at par and pay the promised (usually much lower) interest rate. Not very exciting.

And if inflation pops your interest rate may give you breakeven or less. Well, that's tough unless you had the cojones to buy one of the most volatile commodities in existence: gold. This is a truly ferocious trap that has ruined many.

The big guns say don't speculate with money you can't afford to lose. Hey, thanks. That fits about .001 percent of the investing population.

Read Easterling for the historical big picture. And it ain't a pretty picture. It's all about volatility and volatility is a killer.

And so the moral of the story may be to be very careful with your investment decisions. Err on the side of caution. The first consideration of the physician is Do No Harm. The first consideration of the financial investor is Lose Not Thy Wad.

Of couse there is the notion that markets investing is really just another excuse to excerise the gambling urge for people who consider casinos crass. If that's you, may luck truly be with you.

Mr. Easterling's unexpected returns is an easy to understand introduction to long term equity market valuation. He does an excellent job of taking what can be a very complicated subject and breaking it down so a layman can understand. He methodically demystifies fundamental valuation, and debunks many of the Wall Street myths about investing.

I would recommend this book to anyone who is serious about investing. One caviat is that the book is at times a bit repetitive, and may be a little rudamentary for investment professionals. This is not a critism, as these simple explainations make the book accessable to the layman.
Readers of all acumen would levels benefit from reading this book.

The author makes a couple of valuable points. First, any long-term investment strategy has to take into account the existence of recurrent "secular" (i.e., indefinitely long) bear markets. Most leading investment advisors recommend a "buy and hold" strategy, but this only works during predominately bull market periods. Most studies of successful investment strategies are biased towards the recent 1982-1999 bull market, which is anomalous in historical terms. The author uses a plethora of graphs and charts to prove that "buy and hold" doesn't always provide the best returns. Obviously, then, it's better to pull out during the bear markets, but that's easier said than done. The author provides a very complete analysis of the characteristics of bear markets, including P/E ratio, interest and inflation rates, and GDP. The problem is that those characteristics don't always correlate with market performance. For example, this book was written in 2004 and the author predicted a bear market. Well, if you heeded his advice, you would have missed the bull market of 2004, 2005 and early 2006, especially in small-mid caps and foreign stocks. Even with high P/E ratios, a bull market can continue for several years: witness the late 90s. It's virtually impossible to time the market even if you monitor the major stock indexes on a daily basis. There is so much volatility on a daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly basis that's it's impossible to know when the market has switched directions. By the time that it is apparent, it's too late to profit. Even in the midst of great bull markets, there might be week, month, or even year-long downturns. The author says nothing about individual stock picking, beyond a general value approach. The book is all about big picture, long term trends. Another problem is that the author's predictions are based on his analysis of market trends going back to 1900. But the market (and economy) is a different beast now that it was in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. As they say, past performance does not predict future returns.

The investment advice provided here is not useful. He suggests a "portfolio of hedge funds," ignoring the fact that most hedge funds require a minimum deposit of 500K. He also recommends a "bond ladder," an approach which can be easily replicated with a good bond mutual fund, and frequent rebalancing of your portfolio asset allocations. I don't need to spend $25 and five hours reading to learn that!

One thing I did learn from this book is the impact of volatility, which is often ignored in investment strategy recommendations. Volatility cuts into returns in ways that most studies do not account for. Most studies just average the returns across years, but that doesn't reflect real returns. Let's say you invest $100k into a stock that returns 35% the first year and -15% the second. Your average return should be 10% a year, right? Wrong. At the end of the first year you have 135k. Minus 15% the second year leaves you with 115k total, equal to 7% a year compounded. If you had received 10% a year compounded, your final total would be over 121k. That's 6k difference in just 2 years, and the volatility costs add up.

The book is very poorly written, plodding, sooooo boring, with tons of repetition. Just as an example, the graph showing the "Y curve" relationship between P/E ratio and inflation is repeated no less than 3 times.

Ed Easterling's "Unexpected Returns-Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles" was an unexpected pleasure to read! Superbly organized and current, the book steps you through a well-written explanation of how the stock market works to the advantage of those who understand it. "Unexpected Returns" provides a fresh look at secular bull and bear markets and how the well-informed investor can profit with the right strategy. Free from fluff and filler and based on solid research, the book sets a new standard for texts of its kind. Another unexpected plus were the color charts and graphs that make it easy for the reader to grasp key concepts. Ed deserves a solid A-plus for this book!

Ed Easterling reinforced a conclusion I have come to know the hard way over the last several months. I only wish I had purchased this book when John Mauldin first recommended it months ago. Following the trend in various sectors was easy then. I have lost money trying to continue to sail with the trend, and with today's volitilty, a system that no longer works. With Mr. Easterlings help, I now am aware I must tack, jibe, and yes even row, in the direction created by cycles of volitilty and forget buy and hold. Although it means I must work harder to be a success with my investing, this book has been a very timely addition. For those more sophisticated investors than me, I hope to no longer be used as target practice as I jibe, tack and row, rather than sail in a straight line downwind.

This is a fantastic book to understand long-term market cycles and how they impact a portfolio's returns. Easterling does a masterful job of walking the reader through loads of data and information to understand how elevated P/E market valuations can't continue and how to link economic items such as real and nominal GDP with stock market realities like earnings and P/E valuations. He advocates an absolute return approach during down or choppy markets rather than a passive, relative return approach (that will go down with a declining market). His comparison between the two approaches is excellent and will help you discern what kind of approach you and your broker are currently taking.

My only critique of the of the book is that it fails to help investors apply his insights. Regarding bonds he advocates creating a bond ladder (great advice). Regarding stocks he advises....frequent rebalancing. That's good advice but hardly what I expected after all the great exposition. The final chapter on hedge funds is somewhat helpful but will not apply to the large majority of readers. He seems to defend hedge funds and advocates their inclusion in a portfolio. I suspect Easterling's lack of application is partly due to the fact that he's writing to both sophisticated individuals as well as professional investment managers.

Author does a very nice job of providing the groundwork for expectations in the market by looking at various periods. Overall it is a nice book and I especially like the color figures. However, I would have liked to have seen more realistic applications. Theory and historical data can only help you so much in the stock market.

I have not read this book either and do you know what? - I've found that all the best book reviews at Amazon are written by people who never read the books that they were reviewing.

I'll tell you what can happen when someone gets a book into Amazon: they get all their mates to speed-read their book and award it five stars and a glowing review. When the poor suckers like you and me buy the book we find that it's just another re-hash of the thousands of other money wasting books on investment and we've been conned again.

IMHO these authors have no idea how to make money from investing. If they did, they would not be broadcasting their knowledge to the world; they would either be using that information themselves, or selling it to the king of Saudi Arabia or Bill gates for millions of dollars so that he could make some serious profit from that knowledge.

I'll tell you how to make money from investing: Buy a low cost index fund and hope that things go your way. If you get lucky you'll make money, if luck does not come your way then you won't. But buying investment advice books will get you nowhere fast IMHO and waste the money you spend on the books. If you want to learn about investing its all free on the Internet, so why buy books that are probably out of date when you get them anyway?

And I'll tell you another thing: After reading his stuff for nine years, if John Mauldin recommends a book, as he does this one, I would not even bother to take it off the shelf to read the dust jacket.

I reckon that writing investment books is a racket. I've got boxes full of them and I read the first few pages of most of them and never read any more. Wow have I wasted money on books like this. No More! Joint my revolution and stop buying investment books.

Really excellent, a very readable overview of the LARGE cycles and how powerful they usually are.

Easterling has written a good book. The scholarship is there. Print quality is excellent and graphs are pleasing to the eye. On the downside,the author repeats himself unnecessarily at several points. The data on long term variability in the market and PE ratios is useful and illuminating but one must remember these are correlations and not numbers produced in a scientific experiment. Cause and effect can not be determined. Readers should note that the book is about the market as a whole and not individual stocks. Skilled (or perhaps lucky) investors in individual stocks can still beat the averages even in periods where the market is producing small or negative returns. (Easterling's solution to a so-so market is to invest in Hedge Funds, the downside of which makes many investors nervous). Nevertheless, this is a useful book with a broad, scholarly perspective on stock market behavior. You will be a better investor for reading it.

Easterling has written a good book. The scholarship is there. Print quality is excellent and graphs are pleasing to the eye. On the downside,the author repeats himself unnecessarily at several points. The data on long term variability in the market and PE ratios is useful and illuminating but one must remember these are correlations and not numbers produced in a scientific experiment. Cause and effect can not be determined. Readers should note that the book is about the market as a whole and not individual stocks. Skilled (or perhaps lucky) investors in individual stocks can still beat the averages even in periods where the market is producing small or negative returns. (Easterling's solution to a so-so market is to invest in Hedge Funds, the downside of which makes many investors nervous). Nevertheless, this is a useful book with a broad, scholarly perspective on stock market behavior. You will be a better investor for reading it.

This is a book everyone interested in the stock market needs to read in order to understand and utilize a top down approach to market analysis. Excellent charts and superb explanations.

This is a book everyone interested in the stock market needs to read in order to understand and utilize a top down approach to market analysis. Excellent charts and superb explanations.

I intend to buy this book but have not read it. But be forewarned--these kind of books (Jeremy Siegal's is another example; another was a book that estimated worldwide stock returns over the last 100 years) all have a fatal flaw: they estimate returns over the "long run" that span 40+ years. Unless they invent the fountain of youth soon, most of us will be too old to really enjoy those stellar returns. Over the long run anything can be a good/bad investment, since discount rates erode/increase value--recall the $25 of trinkets used to buy Manhattan island from the American Indians (a good investment if the indians had reinvested the money in Wall Street securities...).

In short, long time spans are ridiculous statistical anomalies.

Recommend this review if it was helpful. Thank you.

Update: I did read this book and it is powerfully bad. It basically believes in chartism. And the one useful chart--a matrix in the beginning of the book that gives the rate of return based on when you bought into the stock market (i.e. your rate after X years if you bought in 1929 before the stockmarket crashed) is wrong--it ignores dividend growth.

I intend to buy this book but have not read it. But be forewarned--these kind of books (Jeremy Siegal's is another example; another was a book that estimated worldwide stock returns over the last 100 years) all have a fatal flaw: they estimate returns over the "long run" that span 40+ years. Unless they invent the fountain of youth soon, most of us will be too old to really enjoy those stellar returns. Over the long run anything can be a good/bad investment, since discount rates erode/increase value--recall the $25 of trinkets used to buy Manhattan island from the American Indians (a good investment if the indians had reinvested the money in Wall Street securities...).

In short, long time spans are ridiculous statistical anomalies.

Recommend this review if it was helpful. Thank you.

I intend to buy this book but have not read it. But be forewarned--these kind of books (Jeremy Siegal's is another example; another was a book that estimated worldwide stock returns over the last 100 years) all have a fatal flaw: they estimate returns over the "long run" that span 40+ years. Unless they invent the fountain of youth soon, most of us will be too old to really enjoy those stellar returns. Over the long run anything can be a good/bad investment, since discount rates erode/increase value--recall the $25 of trinkets used to buy Manhattan island from the American Indians (a good investment if the indians had reinvested the money in Wall Street securities...).

In short, long time spans are ridiculous statistical anomalies.

Recommend this review if it was helpful. Thank you.

As a CPA and private investor I have read many investment books over the years. Most of them tend to support the "view of the day" based on recent market factors. This book gives a crucial long-term perspective on the cycles of the market and the macro risks that an investor is taking at any point in time. If only I had read this book in 1999!

The author does not simply push one approach to investing, he points out that a combination of approaches is needed for effective investing. The passive buy-and-hold strategy is only appropriate in a secular bull market.

I know that I will be a lot more careful with my investment choices after reading this book.

As a CPA and private investor I have read many investment books over the years. Most of them tend to support the "view of the day" based on recent market factors. This book gives a crucial long-term perspective on the cycles of the market and the macro risks that an investor is taking at any point in time. If only I had read this book in 1999!

The author does not simply push one approach to investing, he points out that a combination of approaches is needed for effective investing. The passive buy-and-hold strategy is only appropriate in a secular bull market.

I know that I will be a lot more careful with my investment choices after reading this book.

This is an excellent book. In non-technical terms, Ed Easterling describes how U.S. investment markets have been characterized by long-term bull and bear cycles. He then takes that history and uses it to forecast market performance after the 2000-2002 "correction".

Many investors are not aware of the long-term history of the equity and bond markets. This is the first book accessible to the average investor that makes the case for secular bull and bear cycles. The book clearly shows that the U.S. financial markets are much more risky than most investors perceive them to be. In addition to a concise history of market performance, the author proposes a theory to explain long-term cycles using inflation as the main driver of Price-Earnings ratios.

Much more research needs to be directed to understanding secular market cycles. Nonetheless, this book is an excellent start. It is a must read for any investor and financial adviser.

This is an excellent book. In non-technical terms, Ed Easterling describes how U.S. investment markets have been characterized by long-term bull and bear cycles. He then takes that history and uses it to forecast market performance after the 2000-2002 "correction".

Many investors are not aware of the long-term history of the equity and bond markets. This is the first book accessible to the average investor that makes the case for secular bull and bear cycles. The book clearly shows that the U.S. financial markets are much more risky than most investors perceive them to be. In addition to a concise history of market performance, the author proposes a theory to explain long-term cycles using inflation as the main driver of Price-Earnings ratios.

Much more research needs to be directed to understanding secular market cycles. Nonetheless, this book is an excellent start. It is a must read for any investor and financial adviser.

This is a fantastic book. Gives great reasons as to why future returns are going to be low. Also talks about the critical need to move from Buy and Hold to a more skill based investing approach (i.e. trading on TA ?). The only negative, I see is that he does not elaborate much on what skills/techniques are needed to move to skills based technique. I guess..for that you can invest through his firm.

This is a fantastic book. Gives great reasons as to why future returns are going to be low. Also talks about the critical need to move from Buy and Hold to a more skill based investing approach (i.e. trading on TA ?). The only negative, I see is that he does not elaborate much on what skills/techniques are needed to move to skills based technique. I guess..for that you can invest through his firm.

This author correctly assembles proofs that the stock market has times of enthusiasm and times of discouragement. All investors should surely know that. The proofs dispose of the idea that "Buy and Hold" will always make you rich. Unfortunately, though, some of the over-elaborate graphics are no help at all, and the author' style is both condescending and irritating.

This author correctly assembles proofs that the stock market has times of enthusiasm and times of discouragement. All investors should surely know that. The proofs dispose of the idea that "Buy and Hold" will always make you rich. Unfortunately, though, some of the over-elaborate graphics are no help at all, and the author' style is both condescending and irritating.

Havn't finished the book yet but what I have read is very informative. the service of amazon was great.

Havn't finished the book yet but what I have read is very informative. the service of amazon was great.

I almost stopped reading this book. Easterling spent so much time building credibilty for his work that I nearly fell asleep. THEN when he started talking about the stock market, what factors really determine the long term prices and valuations of markets, well, that's when this book took off. Great stuff.

Written for the non-technical reader but doesn't talk down. I thought the charting of various variables in stock market trends and tendencies to be very friendly to read. Easterling spent the time to literally do the graphs and charts in color and that was a nice change of pace.

He doesn't claim to be a seer, he simply does a brilliant job of laying out piece by piece, how to calculate the future of the stock market.

Truly well done and one of the top four or five investment/stock books of the year.

When you read something this well done, you can only appreciate the author and his love, and depth of knowledge of his subject.

Kevin Hogan, Psy.D.
Author of The Psychology of Persuasion
and
The Science of Influence

I almost stopped reading this book. Easterling spent so much time building credibilty for his work that I nearly fell asleep. THEN when he started talking about the stock market, what factors really determine the long term prices and valuations of markets, well, that's when this book took off. Great stuff.

Written for the non-technical reader but doesn't talk down. I thought the charting of various variables in stock market trends and tendencies to be very friendly to read. Easterling spent the time to literally do the graphs and charts in color and that was a nice change of pace.

He doesn't claim to be a seer, he simply does a brilliant job of laying out piece by piece, how to calculate the future of the stock market.

Truly well done and one of the top four or five investment/stock books of the year.

When you read something this well done, you can only appreciate the author and his love, and depth of knowledge of his subject.

Kevin Hogan, Psy.D.
Author of The Psychology of Persuasion
and
The Science of Influence

Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles is an in-depth answer to the simple question: why is the stock market acting differently in the 2000s than it did in the 1980s and 1990s? Based on years of extensive research, and written by the founder and president of Dallas-based investment firm Crestmont Holdings, Unexpected Returns explains how and why secular market cycles affect the market over periods as long as years or decades. Presenting advanced financial theories in terms as simplified as possible for the lay reader to absorb as he or she progresses through the book, Unexpected Returns covers the history of the stock market, secular cycles, so-called "financial physics", solid investment philosophies and strategies, and much more. Highly recommended for anyone with a serious interest in learning just how the stock market works, whether for theoretical or down-to-earth practical use.

Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles is an in-depth answer to the simple question: why is the stock market acting differently in the 2000s than it did in the 1980s and 1990s? Based on years of extensive research, and written by the founder and president of Dallas-based investment firm Crestmont Holdings, Unexpected Returns explains how and why secular market cycles affect the market over periods as long as years or decades. Presenting advanced financial theories in terms as simplified as possible for the lay reader to absorb as he or she progresses through the book, Unexpected Returns covers the history of the stock market, secular cycles, so-called "financial physics", solid investment philosophies and strategies, and much more. Highly recommended for anyone with a serious interest in learning just how the stock market works, whether for theoretical or down-to-earth practical use.