The Ultimate Dividend Playbook: Income, Insight and Independence for Today's Investor

  Author:    Morningstar Inc., Josh Peters
  ISBN:    0470125128
  Sales Rank:    8767
  Published:    2008-01-02
  Publisher:    Wiley
  # Pages:    368
  Binding:    Hardcover
  Avg. Rating:    5.0 based on 12 reviews
  Used Offers:    14 from $12.50
  Amazon Price:    $16.47
  (Data above last updated:  2008-10-01 04:21:20 EST)
  
  
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The Ultimate Dividend Playbook: Income, Insight and Independence for Today's Investor
  
Many people believe that the key to success in the stock market is buying low and selling high. But how many investors have the time, talent, and luck to earn consistent returns this way? In The Ultimate Dividend Playbook: Income, Insight, and Independence for Today’s Investor, Josh Peters, editor of the monthly Morningstar DividendInvestor newsletter, shows you why you don’t have to try to beat the market and how you can use dividends to capture the income and growth you seek.
                  Reader Reviews 1 - 13 of 13                 
  
  
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09-14-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  HOLY GRAIL
Reviewer Permalink
I DO BELIEVE THAT JOSH PETERS HAS DISCOVERED THE HOLY GRAIL OF "HANDS ON" STOCK MARKET INVESTING ! I CAN'T THINK OF A BETTER WAY TO GET RICH SLOWLY THAN COMPOUNDING INCREASING DIVIDENDS OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS. WORKS LIKE MAGIC, ESPECIALLY IN RETIREMENT PLANS. LOTS OF FUN AND LESS STRESS.

TRY IT, YOU'LL LIKE IT !
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-10-01 04:22:58 EST)
08-03-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Recommended
Reviewer Permalink
Solid, detailed analysis, which will help you to understand why you should have some degree of emphasis on dividend stocks in your portfolio. Written in an easy-to-read style and highly recommended.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-09-16 04:50:46 EST)
06-09-08 5 0\1
(Hide Review...)  Great dividend book
Reviewer Permalink
Nicely lays out the plays to find a money generating stock for the long haul. Very helpful in todays environment.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-08-03 04:19:56 EST)
05-31-08 5 1\1
(Hide Review...)  Fantastic insights
Reviewer Permalink
This book uncovers one of the most powerful investing techniques that no one seems to know - that investment in high dividend growth companies can be extremely profitable. The author explains why and gives some innovative insights into how to implement such a strategy. The book is worthwhile alone for the two tables that show examples of companies that meet the author's criteria. Based on this book I plan to expand my investments of this type.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-06-10 03:40:29 EST)
05-01-08 3 0\1
(Hide Review...)  Too Much 'Marketing Talk'
Reviewer Permalink
Overall good overview of dividend stock investing. But too much of the author marketing talk about his newsletter is a turn off for me, his track record should be included in his service promotion material.

The title of this book should be The Ultimate Dividend Playbook...- Subscribe my newsletter and go fishing.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-06-01 03:40:38 EST)
03-29-08 5 2\2
(Hide Review...)  The Best book on Dividend Investing
Reviewer Permalink
Sometime ago I bought and read following books on dividend investing:
1. Beating the S&P with Dividends, How to Build a Superior Portfolio of Dividend Yielding Stocks by Peter O'Shea and Jonathan Worrall
2. The Standard & Poor's Guide to Building Wealth with Dividend Stocks by Joseph R. Tigue
3. Dividend Growth Investment Strategy, How to keep your Retirement Income Doubling Every Five Years by RoxAnn Klugman, J.D.

The above books are rather shallow in their treatment.

Recently, I bought "The Ultimate Dividend Playbook" by Josh Peters. I have read a few chapters already and find it excellent: It deals with the why, how and what of dividend investing. It gives you the knowledge to be confident in dividend investing. I have already read the book "The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar's Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market" by Pat Dorsey, which is an excellent book on fundamentals of stock investing, and I recommend reading it first before reading the Dividend Playbook.




(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-05-02 05:05:19 EST)
03-28-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Olive Branch Consulting
Reviewer Permalink
The Ultimate Dividend Playbook.Peters- Morningstar

This is the most reveling read on
dividends. What to do, how to do, and most important, when to do.
First and foremost lay out a plan for your future investment strategy.
If your stock is growing and the dividend is increasing rapidly, and the stock has a good continual good read in profit and growth, I normally re-invest my dividend for a year. If the stock begins to vasilate on a regular basis, I stop the re-investment and take the cash.Then if I know that the stock climb back up, I will use the cash dividend to buy more. If you notice when the dividend is re-invested, it normally is at a stocks high.
This is a wonderful book for anyone that wants to take control of there investments.

Thank you,Peters Morningstar

Anthony Oliverio
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-05-02 05:05:19 EST)
03-18-08 3 0\1
(Hide Review...)  A lot of figures and not enough facts
Reviewer Permalink
While I'm a Morningstar fan and pay a hefty yearly membership to take advantage of the famous Morningstar Web site, I was not terribly impressed with this book.

For example, should I sell a stock when it reaches the sell point recommended by Morningstar even though I'm getting a good dividend? No answer. When do I really know when to sell a stock? Only answer I could find was when the dividend is no longer safe?

I also didn't see anything for a value investor like myself. I buy stocks cheap and get a very high dividend. When the stock reaches fair value or over value, I keep it but simply do not buy more. The book didn't address this tactic. In fact, it didn't address the best time to buy any more than it did the best time to sell.

Yes, it gave some formulas, which would be helpful. But all told, I was rather disappointed in the book. While that is my reaction, I do think it would be good for a new investor or someone new to dividend investing.

-Susanna K. Hutcheson
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-03-29 22:39:27 EST)
03-05-08 5 1\1
(Hide Review...)  josh is a breath of fresh air
Reviewer Permalink
I've taken Josh's newsletter for six months now, and appreciate his teaching approach which is now usefully captured in this book. He demystifies investing for dividend income, which I've now added to the several other approaches I use to structure my overall portfolio. I'm not yet to retirement, but still clearly see that dividend investing can play an important role for any type of investor.

I'm most thankful that Josh is humble and sincere; he wants us to become more capable of looking out for ourselves in the financial markets -- this in dramatic contrast to the many hucksters who only want our money.

Thanks Josh.

Mike
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-03-19 18:45:35 EST)
03-03-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Dividends: Income for Life
Reviewer Permalink
Like Clif, I am an early retiree who relies on dividends for an (in my case, modest) income stream. I disclose this so the reader can place this review in perspective. The thesis of this book coincided with my own investing philosophy, so I anticipated both friendly and familiar ground, but the author argued persuasively the advantages of dividend-paying stock strategy over alternatives, and he provided sufficient detail on the analysis of the dividend aspect of equities to improve my knowledge in this area.

The book's thrust is that you may be better off receiving income via dividends than regularly selling off stocks from your portfolio or relying on fixed income instruments. Moreover, even if you are a long-term investor looking for a modicum of growth and not only immediate income, the author confirms the value-investing maxim that div-payers tend to perform better than non-div stocks over the long term.

And to me perhaps the most convincing construction, also proposed by the book Active Value Investing, is that if you are going to own a stock and that stock's performance is flat or down for relatively long periods of time (say, during range-bound or bear markets), would you not want the stock to pay you for holding it in the meantime?

The author uses a variety of methods to analyze how to select dividend-payers that are likely to continue paying, and increasing, their dividends. He focuses on ROE vice cash flow, and explains why. He also reveals his own portfolio. One nit-pick is the promotion of his newsletter, which is common among investing authors but nonetheless detracts a bit from the point being made.

It is worth noting that this book was put to bed mid-2007, so his fairly unalloyed praise of REITs should be viewed in that context. He does somewhat presciently warn on the risks of bank dividends. Naturally, the principles of dividend investing apply, generally, regardless of the prevailing market condition, and the author also correctly cautions against the tendency to chase the highest dividend yields at any particular time rather than looking at a stock's dividend yield/growth history and other relevant factors.

Many financial advisors and institutions recommend either singly or in combination the fixed income (bonds, annuities) or "sell x% of your stock portfolio each year" method of generating investment income streams. The author offers the dividend-stream approach as an equally viable consideration for the long-term investor.

And finally, what the reader should expect from this book is less a list of what stocks to buy than "here's how to pick solid dividend-paying stocks, and here are the ones I selected."
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-03-05 01:53:45 EST)
02-13-08 5 7\10
(Hide Review...)  the ultimate dividend playbook
Reviewer Permalink
This book is a must have for the serious long term investor.It proves that buying stong companies that consistently increase their dividends is a superior way to invest than the momentum style investing that is a waste of time and money.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-03-04 13:10:56 EST)
01-15-08 5 13\13
(Hide Review...)  How to get rich, slowly with dividends.
Reviewer Permalink
Let me be upfront, I am a fan of dividend investing in general and Josh's Morningstar Dividend Investor Newsletter in particular. As an early retiree I have been struggling with a way to have enough income to enjoy life, while protecting my nest egg from the ravages of inflation.

I think this is a valuable book for the intermediate or advance investor to own for two reasons. First, while dividend investing has become somewhat trendy in the last couple of years, there hasn't been much in depth analysis of why dividends matter. Secondly, the truly outstanding portion of the Dividend Playbook is it teaches the average investor how to search out and evaluate dividend stocks, and figure out which are likely to be good investments. Overall, the Playbook is the rare business book that does a better job teaching you how to catch fish, than making the case why you should eat fish!

Target Audience.
I think anybody who is a current or potential M* Dividend Investor Newsletter subscriber would be crazy not to buy this book, it is a fraction of the cost of the newsletter, and makes the newsletter much more valuable. I'd also commend it to any do it yourself stock picker. I think it would be valuable people looking at purchasing dividend ETF like DVY or mutual funds. A beginning investor who isn't really comfortable with terms like Return on Equity, or an index fund investor, or 401K investor doesn't really need it.

Why dividends?
Josh quickly nailed my biggest problem as a retiree depending on an equity heavy (80%) investor. It is awfully hard to figure out when to buy a stock and even harder to know when to sell. I think even for a pure index fund investor with a 50% stock/bond mix who is rebalancing his portfolio in Jan 2008, must be uneasy with recent market volatility. I am sure many ask themselves, do I really want to buy more stocks? They have gone down a lot in the last couple of months. For the individual stock investor figuring out which stocks are overpriced and what is underpriced is way to much work. According to Josh, the beauty of the dividend income approach is by relying on income you are letting the stock do the work for you. As long as the companies keep paying dividends and they continue to grow there is no need to worry about how manic depressive Mr. Market feels about your stocks today or tomorrow.

The first few of chapters make the case for dividend investing being superior. I was most interested in Professor Jeremy Siegel (of Stocks for the Long Run fame) study of the top 100 highest yielding stocks in the S&P 500 earning an average of 14.3% annually while the lowest 100 yielding making only 9.5% annually between 1958 and 2003. Several other shorter term (10-25 years) studies were also cited showing the superiority of dividend investing. One of my main criticism of the book, is I don't think nearly enough time was devoted (only few pages out of 335) to bolstering Josh's claim "There's no good reason an investor needs to own any non dividend paying stock at all". Not only would Google shareholders disagree but so would Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. I'd love to see a great deal of more effort to examining historical studies of dividend investing.

His philosophical case for why dividends are good for shareholders is quite strong. Imagine a company which makes $200 million in profit. It can reinvest $100 million in it is core business which has historically earn 20% on equity, there is also a $100 million opportunity to acquire another business which if all goes well may earn 15%, In the absence of dividends, both projects are likely to be funded. As we all know the number of can't miss acquisitions which have flopped is huge. If on the other hand, the company has historically paid out $100 million in dividends management is likely to pass on the risky acquisitions. One particularly interesting insight was the case against share paybacks. All too often management announces buybacks but don't follow through, even more troubling is share buybacks award EX shareholders not the existing loyal shareholders. If management want to keep stable base of shareholder dividends are a much better approach.

The Dividend Drill
The meat of the book is in Mr. Peter approach to evaluating dividend stocks which he calls the Dividend Drill. The drill is familiar to his newsletter readers, but I never completely understood it until reading the book. The simplest part is the insight that the total return of a stock is equal to the current dividend yield + dividend growth rate. Thus a stock currently yields 4% and has been growing dividends at 6% in the past and is likely to do so in the future its long term total return is 6%+4%=10%. Johnson and Johnson is a classic example with a yield which has been around 2% for most of the last 30 years, but with a dividend growth rate of 14%. The total return on JNJ including reinvesting dividends has been 16% over a 30 year period. Many other stocks have shown strong correlation between dividend yield+growth and total return; examples include Utilities like Con Ed with 5.5% yield and 1% growth rate and Realty Income (O) with a 7% yield and 3.7% div growth rate.

The crux of the dividend drill is evaluating a dividend stock on three critical elements; is the dividend safe, can the dividend grow, and what's the return? There is high school level math involved and balance sheet 101 knowledge is definitely needed (I have an MBA so I pass!), however it isn't very complex. Mr. Peters does a good job of providing concrete examples and nice step by step explanation.

Dividend safety is a relatively simple calculation; do the projected earnings exceed next year's dividend by a comfortable margin? Josh explains that the safety margins (aka payout ratio) for a cyclical industry need to be considerable higher than a natural gas pipeline company. Will it grow is probably the most difficult calculation to make. There are numerous things to consider, management's commitment to growing dividends, the core potential growth rate, obviously microchip companies have a higher potential growth rate than potato chips companies, and small companies better potential than large companies. Future earnings growth and return on equity are also factors.

Josh then discusses how to calculate total return and emphasis the importance of setting hurdles. In general Josh finds a sweet stock with stocks yielding between 4-7%. Stocks yielding above say 9% are at risk of having a dividend cut, stocks yielding 2% or below require very high growth rates. This sweet spot is important to retirees because a 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate requires growth at the rate of inflation. If Mr. Bear market or Sub prime Scandal comes along and cuts the price of your 4% dividend payer by 25% you can pretty much ride out the market with your income intact. On the other hand, the yields aren't so high that a dividend cut is likely because of dropping earnings. Overall Josh is looking for companies which will provide a total return in the 9-11% only a couple of percent higher than his 8% total return estimate for the overall market going forward. (FYI, pretty much in line with Buffett and others estimates.) Still a 1-2% reliable return over the market translates into a hefty increase in disposal income for a retiree or near retiree.

The final chapters of the books discuss managing a dividend portfolio. He gives some helpful advice about picking a target income need and designing a portfolio around that. Not surprisingly the portfolio construction is very similar to the M* dividend investor newsletter portfolio. The lack of diversification (e.g. heavy emphasis on financial) could be worrisome to some investor. However, there is something to be said about Mr. Peters, Warren Buffett, and Marty Whitman, argument that it is better to own 10 stocks you know than 500 you don't know. One of my other criticisms of the book is that the all important discussion of when to sell is definitely glossed over.

Some of the most valuable section of the books is the 6 appendixes, which discuss the mechanism of dividend payments, tax treatments, and investing in Utilities, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), REITs, and Bank Stocks, respectively. The last three areas are particularly good places to look to find high yielding dividend stocks. However, they require an additional approach to evaluating the potential returns. I was particular pleased with these appendix, because having learned the basics of fishing, it is very helpful to learn the tricks involved in fly fish, ocean fishing, and bass fishing, because the more you know the less chance you have of going hungry!

Overall, I am much more confident about investing in dividend stocks thanks to this book. I intend to continue to emphasis individual dividend stocks, for the non-index portion of my portfolio.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-01-22 16:12:17 EST)
01-14-08 5 16\16
(Hide Review...)  How to get rich, slowly with dividends.
Reviewer Permalink
Let me be upfront, I am a fan of dividend investing in general and Josh's Morningstar Dividend Investor Newsletter in particular. As an early retiree I have been struggling with a way to have enough income to enjoy life, while protecting my nest egg from the ravages of inflation.

I think this is a valuable book for the intermediate or advance investor to own for two reasons. First, while dividend investing has become somewhat trendy in the last couple of years, there hasn't been much in depth analysis of why dividends matter. Secondly, the truly outstanding portion of the Dividend Playbook is it teaches the average investor how to search out and evaluate dividend stocks, and figure out which are likely to be good investments. Overall, the Playbook is the rare business book that does a better job teaching you how to catch fish, than making the case why you should eat fish!

Target Audience.
I think anybody who is a current or potential M* Dividend Investor Newsletter subscriber would be crazy not to buy this book, it is a fraction of the cost of the newsletter, and makes the newsletter much more valuable. I'd also commend it to any do it yourself stock picker. I think it would be valuable people looking at purchasing dividend ETF like DVY or mutual funds. A beginning investor who isn't really comfortable with terms like Return on Equity, or an index fund investor, or 401K investor doesn't really need it.

Why dividends?
Josh quickly nailed my biggest problem as a retiree depending on an equity heavy (80%) investor. It is awfully hard to figure out when to buy a stock and even harder to know when to sell. I think even for a pure index fund investor with a 50% stock/bond mix who is rebalancing his portfolio in Jan 2008, must be uneasy with recent market volatility. I am sure many ask themselves, do I really want to buy more stocks? They have gone down a lot in the last couple of months. For the individual stock investor figuring out which stocks are overpriced and what is underpriced is way to much work. According to Josh, the beauty of the dividend income approach is by relying on income you are letting the stock do the work for you. As long as the companies keep paying dividends and they continue to grow there is no need to worry about how manic depressive Mr. Market feels about your stocks today or tomorrow.

The first few of chapters make the case for dividend investing being superior. I was most interested in Professor Jeremy Siegel (of Stocks for the Long Run fame) study of the top 100 highest yielding stocks in the S&P 500 earning an average of 14.3% annually while the lowest 100 yielding making only 9.5% annually between 1958 and 2003. Several other shorter term (10-25 years) studies were also cited showing the superiority of dividend investing. One of my main criticism of the book, is I don't think nearly enough time was devoted (only few pages out of 335) to bolstering Josh's claim "There's no good reason an investor needs to own any non dividend paying stock at all". Not only would Google shareholders disagree but so would Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. I'd love to see a great deal of more effort to examining historical studies of dividend investing.

His philosophical case for why dividends are good for shareholders is quite strong. Imagine a company which makes $200 million in profit. It can reinvest $100 million in it is core business which has historically earn 20% on equity, there is also a $100 million opportunity to acquire another business which if all goes well may earn 15%, In the absence of dividends, both projects are likely to be funded. As we all know the number of can't miss acquisitions which have flopped is huge. If on the other hand, the company has historically paid out $100 million in dividends management is likely to pass on the risky acquisitions. One particularly interesting insight was the case against share paybacks. All too often management announces buybacks but don't follow through, even more troubling is share buybacks award EX shareholders not the existing loyal shareholders. If management want to keep stable base of shareholder dividends are a much better approach.

The Dividend Drill
The meat of the book is in Mr. Peter approach to evaluating dividend stocks which he calls the Dividend Drill. The drill is familiar to his newsletter readers, but I never completely understood it until reading the book. The simplest part is the insight that the total return of a stock is equal to the current dividend yield + dividend growth rate. Thus a stock currently yields 4% and has been growing dividends at 6% in the past and is likely to do so in the future its long term total return is 6%+4%=10%. Johnson and Johnson is a classic example with a yield which has been around 2% for most of the last 30 years, but with a dividend growth rate of 14%. The total return on JNJ including reinvesting dividends has been 16% over a 30 year period. Many other stocks have shown strong correlation between dividend yield+growth and total return; examples include Utilities like Con Ed with 5.5% yield and 1% growth rate and Realty Income (O) with a 7% yield and 3.7% div growth rate.

The crux of the dividend drill is evaluating a dividend stock on three critical elements; is the dividend safe, can the dividend grow, and what's the return? There is high school level math involved and balance sheet 101 knowledge is definitely needed (I have an MBA so I pass!), however it isn't very complex. Mr. Peters does a good job of providing concrete examples and nice step by step explanation.

Dividend safety is a relatively simple calculation; do the projected earnings exceed next year's dividend by a comfortable margin? Josh explains that the safety margins (aka payout ratio) for a cyclical industry need to be considerable higher than a natural gas pipeline company. Will it grow is probably the most difficult calculation to make. There are numerous things to consider, management's commitment to growing dividends, the core potential growth rate, obviously microchip companies have a higher potential growth rate than potato chips companies, and small companies better potential than large companies. Future earnings growth and return on equity are also factors.

Josh then discusses how to calculate total return and emphasis the importance of setting hurdles. In general Josh finds a sweet stock with stocks yielding between 4-7%. Stocks yielding above say 9% are at risk of having a dividend cut, stocks yielding 2% or below require very high growth rates. This sweet spot is important to retirees because a 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate requires growth at the rate of inflation. If Mr. Bear market or Sub prime Scandal comes along and cuts the price of your 4% dividend payer by 25% you can pretty much ride out the market with your income intact. On the other hand, the yields aren't so high that a dividend cut is likely because of dropping earnings. Overall Josh is looking for companies which will provide a total return in the 9-11% only a couple of percent higher than his 8% total return estimate for the overall market going forward. (FYI, pretty much in line with Buffett and others estimates.) Still a 1-2% reliable return over the market translates into a hefty increase in disposal income for a retiree or near retiree.

The final chapters of the books discuss managing a dividend portfolio. He gives some helpful advice about picking a target income need and designing a portfolio around that. Not surprisingly the portfolio construction is very similar to the M* dividend investor newsletter portfolio. The lack of diversification (e.g. heavy emphasis on financial) could be worrisome to some investor. However, there is something to be said about Mr. Peters, Warren Buffett, and Marty Whitman, argument that it is better to own 10 stocks you know than 500 you don't know. One of my other criticisms of the book is that the all important discussion of when to sell is definitely glossed over.

Some of the most valuable section of the books is the 6 appendixes, which discuss the mechanism of dividend payments, tax treatments, and investing in Utilities, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), REITs, and Bank Stocks, respectively. The last three areas are particularly good places to look to find high yielding dividend stocks. However, they require an additional approach to evaluating the potential returns. I was particular pleased with these appendix, because having learned the basics of fishing, it is very helpful to learn the tricks involved in fly fish, ocean fishing, and bass fishing, because the more you know the less chance you have of going hungry!

Overall, I am much more confident about investing in dividend stocks thanks to this book. I intend to continue to emphasis individual dividend stocks, for the non-index portion of my portfolio.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-01-23 14:32:55 EST)
  
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