This is a slightly boring book. The author appears to have predicted past stock market events, before they happened. The book has many charts and graphs to make his point of view easier to see.

After reading this book and reviewing Dent's former books on profiting from economic bubbles, I have applied some defensive actions and thus far have started to build profit and also manage losses within various portfolios. I believe he is on track with this book and many can benefit from his insight.

Back in 1999 I was one of the suckers who bought Dent's "The Roaring 2000's". In that book Dent played with demographics to make the case that the 00's would be a boom time in the stock market. Of course, we all know how that turned out, with one of the worst performing decades of the last century.

But Dent must know there's a sucker born every minute, as he somehow has found the chutzpah to write another book of economic forecasts. When reading Dent's last book I knew he might be wrong. But still I ended up feeling like a fool for paying money for the inaccurate scribblings of this clueless con man. Don't be sucker like I was. Don't buy this book.

Just finished the book last night. He has some interesting things to say, especially about the buying habits of groups as they age.

However, he completely destroyed his credibility when, for some bizarre reason, he decided he had to work man caused global warming into the book 50 to a 100 times and how we have to do something about it. If he was just giving advice on how to make money off this power grabbing scam I could understand, but he is serious. If this was 10 years ago I could understand, but he wrote this in 2008. This makes me wonder how much of his other stuff is a bunch of crap.

Save your money, get this at the library. If your local library doesn't have it, fill out the form for an inter-library loan.

Before any gw nut writes to tell me how stupid I am, yes I know the earth was warming slightly a few years ago. But unless you include an explanation of how man was causing some of the other planets to warm up at the same time, don't embarrass yourself.

A very good analysis. Too long and wordy. Too much over lap of histroical info. Should have been about 1/3 shorter.

I read his book in detail and try to use some data set from British Colombia to gauge housing demand in Vancouver. However, I found his method is flawed:

1. Key logic flaw: percentage of buyer age group in home buyer survey by National Association of Realtors doesn't mean "typical" buying age or the possibility of buying home at different age. The original logic process of Dent is: sampled buyer age distribution infers actual buyer age distribution (correct!); then, most buyer is at age X (or any distribution) infers most people buys home at age X (or at age X people is most likely to buy home, wrong! This induction/generalization might not be true). A simple negative example is that there could be more people in age group X demographically, so there are more buyer at age X when the survey was carried out! To get the likelihood of buying a home at different age group, we need to divide percentage of buyer age group by its percentage of demographic age group (row 9), and then normalize the result (row 10), which is the possibility of buying home at different age group in people's life at the time of that survey. We need to get series of survey spanning multiple decades to see if there is any behavioral change - note, not only buyer survey, but also demographic at the time of survey.
2. Peak vs. distribution. It might be easy for Dent to use peak data (or median age data), and then he got a very dramatic cyclical potential buyer curve. However, if we use distribution data, esp. when the possibility of buying home scatters across major age group after age 35, the result potential buyer curve is far less dramatic - I think this result is more reasonable, as we should look aggregate demand, not demand of certain age group (or only median age). The aggregate demand across different age group smooths the demand curve.
3. Survey data are important assumptions. First, we need enough historical survey data (across decades, and with demographical data) to profile home buying behavior in different age; second, we need enough confident that this behavior will persist in future - this could be a leap of faith, because many external factors (other than family, kids - internal factors or demographical factors) affects the conversion of home buying desire to actual home buying activity. Such factors are: mortgage rate, unemployment rate, people's expectation of future house price, etc. Dent did little research on the sensitivity of his model/method to these external factors.

In conclusion, I think Dent's method is one good way of thinking potential demand (demographically), but might not be that sound and analytical as it appears to be. I think it makes sense only for long term trend (10+ years), but it has little predication power for peak or trough at precision of year, when I think external factors plays larger role than internal/demographical factors. It certainly makes the method even less credible when he includes some " 500 years civilization cycle" ;-)

[...]

Mr. Dent could be right this time around.

I bought and read some of Mr. Dent's prior books. Two were
"The Roaring 2000s" and "The Roaring 2000s Investor."
He prophesied one could build wealth and lifestyle you
desire in the greatest boom in history (this was essentially
the subtitle to the first tome mentioned.)

What happened? Two meltdowns in the stock market not so long
after he published the books. My guess is he added considerably
to his own wealth by hyping the facts.. If he had predicted those
disasters, he might be more credible now.

To me, the prospects for a depression do seem ripe. Thankfully,
Mr. Dent has an UN-prophetic track record. This give me hope
that his predictions might continue to be wrong!

To be fair, Mr. Dent might be right this time. Even a stopped
clock is exactly right twice a day.

I picked up "The Great Depression Ahead" from the display of new Non-Fiction books at my local library. I've never read any of Harry S. Dent's books, and I thought that it wouldn't hurt to get another person's forecast of where we're headed financially from here. After all, if someone can make a strong case based on evidence that makes sense, why not keep an open mind until you evaluate his facts?

The books is easy to read. Unfortunately, the "facts" in the book are based on very weak (or non-existent) evidence. For example, one of his basic tenants is that events tend to happen in regular cycles, say every 30 years, 40 years, etc. I'm willing to accept that theory, but not based just on a graph that shows only the last two cycles. Show me at least 4 or 5 cycles if you want me to believe! This happens time and time again, and if I can't believe the initial "proofs" I certainly can't believe the predictions that he draws from them. In addition, the book is VERY repetitious- it repeats the same things over and over again. The whole thing could have been written in 1/3rd the number of pages.

You may or may not believe in things like the "peak oil" theory (which is NOT part of Dent's book), but at least those who propose ideas like that give you lots and lots of sources and references that can be independently checked and verified. "The Great Depression Ahead" asks you to take a great leap of faith and "trust" its assumptions when you look at the future through the glass darkly. Mr. Dent may or may not be right about his predictions, but in any case they're not based on facts. You might enjoy reading this book, but it belongs in the "Fiction" classification.

I wanted a book that had advice for what to do in a down turn, but this book offers basically nothing. There are a couple of "duhuhs," but basically it's all garbage. I knew the moment this turkey started mentioning global warming and other brainless propaganda that this thing was going to be worthless, but I went through the whole thing anyway. I wish now that I could get those hours of my life back.

Anyway, to keep from repeating what others have already written, you can read the other comments from anyone else who gave this book 1 star.

Let me give you the wrap up of this useless book though.
1) There may be a big depression sometime between now and mid 2010.
2) It may last until 2020+, but the worst will be over by the early 20-teens.
3) Buy T-Bills - That's right, that's the highlight of the advice he gives.

Save your money and skip this useless book.

When I purchased this book I didn't believe that anyone could predict the future and after reading it I still don't. However Mr. Dent has compiled a good set of data that indicates that most events occur in cycles periodically and can be used to help see the future. I accept this premise and believe that we all need to make our own predictions for the future. The Great Depression Ahead book can serve as a good source of information for this task. This is what Dent has done and is now predicting the upcoming downfall of the economy in the US and world wide which makes sense to me. Aside from everything else our current administration is destroying our previous system and thus ensuring a big depression in the near future. /DaveB

This book is chock-full of charts that illustrate hard facts and figures. It can be somewhat of a tedium to analyze and interpret these charts just to follow along with the author's line of reasoning for his economic predictions for the next 12-15 years and beyond. His premise, however, is fairly straight-forward, if a little cliche and patently simplistic - it is that the economy runs in cycles.

Dent predicts we're heading inexorably towards an economic depression due to hit between 2010 to 2012. He predicts that it will rival The Great Depression in severity and will persist for the next 12-15 years during which time unemployment could be as high as 12% - 15%.

Dent's prediction is predicated on the fact that the interval between the depression of the 1870's and the Great Depression of 1929 is about sixty years and the depressions prior to the 1870's also follow the 60-year pattern. He posits that we've shifted to an 80-year cycles and that the next depression is in 80 years, not 60 to adjust for the change in demographics.

Dent proposes that the economic cycle is a function of demographics and sub-cycles, such as those occurring in the stock market, technology, real estate, and oil and commodity. He gives an impressively detailed analysis of economic trends that get right down to the nitty-gritty over the coming years and decades. More astounding still is the specificity of his financial advice such as one that encourages you to sell your business by mid to late 2009.

This book is not for the faint of heart because it contains so much facts and figures and analysis that it feels like a bit of a drudgery to read. It remains to be seen whether his predictions pan out, but as with all predictions and financial advice, take it with a grain of salt.

I don't fully agree with the author that a depression
is likely in the near future. The 2008 crash of the
stock market was merely a return to the growth pattern
of stocks in the 1960-1990 period. The trend line
for the 1960-1990 period would have the stock market
at the 3000-4000 level by 2010.

Nonetheless, the author has made some good points in the
book which policymakers should not ignore. He believes
that a commodity bubble is likely in order to bring
some prices into historical alignment. Real estate,
commodities and stocks are definite bears throughout
2010 and slightly beyond. I don't fully agree.
Real estate is a function of location and not necessarily
the market alone. Prime real estate locations are
holding values- even now. In addition, the world
population has been on an upward increase for decades.

The author advises us to seek out businesses with
low debt and strong cash flow. In addition, a
judicious purchase of small caps may be in order.
The best job prospects are in the 2012-2017 and 2020-2030
period.

Growing metrohubs in the USA are:
o Charlotte
o Austin
o Houston
o Phoenix

Megacities are expected to be:
o Birmingham
o Louisville
o Jacksonville
o San Antonio

Asia will be a growth area. Megacities include
Kinshasa, Congo; Guangzhou, China; Chennai,
India and Lima, Peru. Finally, the author provides
a website for research purposes. wwwhsdent.com

Charlatan Harry Dent made a cottage industry out of his "The Great Boom Ahead" books in the 90s. He made a lot of money, not only from copies of his book (which were mainly unread except for one neat graph that predicted the market to keep going up for 25 years). He made even more money parading around the country, funded by mutual fund companies, who marketed him to financial "advisors" (Stockbrokers/mutual fund salesmen) who put him in front of their clients. What a great tale he told. He was a mutual fund company's dream salesman, so they even made up mutual funds based on his book.

Inconveniently for Harry Dent, the market did not keep going up for 25 years. In fact, it collapsed in 2008. Conveniently for Harry Dent, all he had to do was change the title of his book to "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash..." What a great racket, just change the title of your book each year to whatever is happening at the time.

Do what he says in this book and find yourself in the poorhouse. The only nickel Harry S Dent has made for himself or anyone else is the money he's made selling books to the poor gullible public and mutual fund companies complicit in his falsehoods.

This is a good book. The only knock I would have is that he spends a little too much time on demographics.

A lot of these reviews amuse me. They duly note Dent's strong grasp of history and economics, then accuse him of relying 'only' on those things to talk about his vision of the future. To be sure, none of us are prophets, but when discussing potential future economic developments, those fields seem like good ones to cull information from.

That said, I don't agree with all of Dent's predictions- I DO sympathize with his general ideas about continuing decline, but I don't see it unfolding the way he does (but I'm a theologian, so who really cares what I think about economics?). However, he makes cogent cases for his predictions, and I guess he did as well as can be expected for someone laying out their vision of the next decade and beyond.

I tend to reject any singular vision of the future on the grounds that no one person gets it right all the time, and prefer to listen to multiple voices, watching events unfold and taking note of who's right, and about what. It makes it harder for me to argue for my own vision, especially since I'm NOT an economist or analyst, but I'm not really trying to change anyone's mind, anyhow. My advice is to read the book if you're interested in what Dent thinks is going to happen (but take not of his track record, as some of the other reviewers here have warned), but don't base all your plans or interpretations on it. Beyond that, anything I have to say isn't going to be worth much since this isn't my field, so squeeze it in if you have time, but don't bump other books from your reading list just to make room for this one.

The author Harry S. Dent Jr., claims he has created a "New Science of Economics" using demographics and cycles to give financial advice. Is Dent's new approach trustworthy? No! Here's why: Dent does not just say demographics have an effect on the economy. He actually claims the age of a population is the driving force of the economy. Page 51 in bold type: "If we know when the average person enters the workforce, gets married, has kids, buys houses, earns and spends, borrows and retires debt, saves and invests, retires and dies - why can't we predict most key trends in our economy decades in advance? The answer is that we can!" Is this guy nuts? Predicting key trends in individuals, sure (insurance actuarial), but predicting trends in the population and economy as a whole? Yeah right. But even more ludicrous is Dent's use of non-existent cycles for predicting future events. The section "Brief History of Long-Term Cycles" was particularly ridiculous, especially his 5,000 year Civilization Cycle. He chose the Agricultural Revolution of 8000 BC as a marker, and the "...emergence of larger cities..." 5,000 years later as the next marker where Dent says "...we can see an astoundingly clear 5,000-year cycle." Based on what? These non-related events do not even form a pattern, much less a predictable cycle. Graphs 3.7 and 3.10 don't even have a Y axis, therefore they are not even graphs. They were fabricated. Since Dent sees population cycles where there are none, I don't trust his claims to see cycles in financial markets that are beyond what other professionals see.

Aside from the author failing to support his "New Science of Economics," does the book live up to its title? Even if I trusted Dent, with the utter lack of detail, I would have a hard time following his advice, much less being able to "prosper" in the times ahead. Unless, of course, I subscribed to his newsletter. Self promotion abounds, and reminders to purchase additional information are peppered throughout the book, (newsletters for a year are $299). And now we come to the heart of the matter. The book is not the ramblings of a delusional individual, but rather another intentional marketing scheme disguised as a helpful service aimed at people already primed by the dire title to purchase more nonsense. For the hopelessly gullible, you can join the HS Dent Network for Financial Planners or attend HS Dent's Demographics School as advertised in the back of the book.

Totally kept my attention and is so current, it's like seeing todays news with a bit of "I see in your future", based on trends, history and facts.

A must read for everyone, even if you only have an IRA or 401k at work and are not a "hard-core" investor. Even if only half of what Mr. Dent believes will happen does take place, we haven't seen anything yet !

As often happens, Amazon knocks me off and destroys my review before I have a chance to publish. The book is good & although I still have chapters 7 & 9 to read, Chapter 8 is all you really need. It is worth the price you will pay and should save you money. It looks like we will have a replay of the 20's & 30's and President O will come out of this smelling like a rose, much like the propaganda on FDR. President Bush will be the scape-goat as President Hoover in the past but that discussion is for another great book. This book is not political and should help amateur investors. It's not a fun read or a book that you cannot put down. It is an interesting read and one you will want to finish, cover to cover.

Mr.Harry Dent knows a lot about history, demographics and that's all. This book is full of speculation that may mislead you or induce you fear. Basically he suggests investing in T-Bill, Bond and Currency. I would like to ask Mr. Dent do you work for the government. As I read your book you mention way to much this investment. You speculate too much in stock and commodities and your suggestions only bring fear into people so that the average Jo person will run and invest in secure and conservative investment as bond and T-Bill, I call them pure junk at this moment in time. Please do not take all of his suggestion as the real feature and read more books to get different views.

I had a feeling I was reading a book of Nostradamus on the future of finance, markets and demography. Between 2019 and 2014?? Between 2018 and 2025?? In the next 80 years!!
COME ON!!!

I love how Dent is now touting how to prosper in the depression - His last book "The Next Great Bubble Boom" made promise after promise that failed to deliver - I was even suckered into spending over 150 bucks for his monthly newsletter and he was dead wrong.

Want examples?

December 2005 newsletter - "Last Chance to Buy!"

We have seen the first sign of a peak in oil prices with the break
below $62 to just below $60. But we still need to see oil break con-
clusively below $58 and gold below $458 to confirm that inflation
fears and the commodity bubbles are over for now and that the mar-
kets can make a more sustainable strong advance. But the next
advance will likely accelerate before that occurs.

Oil went to 140 - Gold went to over 1,000

How about THIS beauty from the same newsletter:

In addition to high end condos in New York suddenly
falling and the flattening in overall home prices in South
Florida, home equity lending has also flattened in
response to rising short and long term rates since July as
we show in Chart 3. We think this is the beginning of the
end of the housing price bubble that we have been fore-
casting would deflate suddenly, but not crash overall into
2006.

Not only did the housing boom ESCALATE and lending didn't "flatten", it went through the roof! And guess what crashed in the fall of 2008?

I love the conclusion - remember, this was Dent touting the next big BOOM at the beginning of 2006

Summary Recommendations: In our extended April
and May issues we were warning that oil prices were
approaching a peak in the summer and that home prices
would start to slow by the fall, with energy and home-
building stocks correcting substantially and then lag.
That has already begun with the recent falls in oil prices
and the slowing in equity lending and house buying. We
continue to recommend buying stocks in the small cap
growth, technology, health care, biotech, financial servic-
es (investment-oriented) and Asian sectors on any weak-
ness just ahead and being as fully invested as your risk
tolerance allows.

There's a sucker born every minute I guess.

I love how Dent is now touting how to prosper in the depression - His last book "The Next Great Bubble Boom" made promise after promise that failed to deliver - I was even suckered into spending over 150 bucks for his monthly newsletter and he was dead wrong.

Want examples?

December 2005 newsletter - "Last Chance to Buy!"

We have seen the first sign of a peak in oil prices with the break
below $62 to just below $60. But we still need to see oil break con-
clusively below $58 and gold below $458 to confirm that inflation
fears and the commodity bubbles are over for now and that the mar-
kets can make a more sustainable strong advance. But the next
advance will likely accelerate before that occurs.

Oil went to 140

How about THIS beauty from the same newsletter:

In addition to high end condos in New York suddenly
falling and the flattening in overall home prices in South
Florida, home equity lending has also flattened in
response to rising short and long term rates since July as
we show in Chart 3. We think this is the beginning of the
end of the housing price bubble that we have been fore-
casting would deflate suddenly, but not crash overall into
2006.

Not only did the housing boom ESCALATE and lending didn't "flatten", it went through the roof! And guess what crashed in the fall of 2008?

I love the conclusion - remember, this was Dent touting the next big BOOM at the beginning of 2006

Summary Recommendations: In our extended April
and May issues we were warning that oil prices were
approaching a peak in the summer and that home prices
would start to slow by the fall, with energy and home-
building stocks correcting substantially and then lag.
That has already begun with the recent falls in oil prices
and the slowing in equity lending and house buying. We
continue to recommend buying stocks in the small cap
growth, technology, health care, biotech, financial servic-
es (investment-oriented) and Asian sectors on any weak-
ness just ahead and being as fully invested as your risk
tolerance allows.

There's a sucker born every minute I guess.

I first heard about Dr. Harry Dent 10 years ago, when I picked up his book, the Roaring 2,000's in an airport bookstore. I found his approach to forecasting refreshing then, and his predictions have been proven right since. That's why I ordered his latest book, and am waiting to see if he is as accurate this time as he was before. We base our entire insurance industry on the same sort of research - why shouldn't it apply to economics?

I have given Harry Dent's latest book, "The Great Depression Ahead" 3 stars for effort. This is high praise from me as I am a bit of a skeptic where predicting economic trends is concerned. Dent has in fact badly predicted such things in the past. But he is a stubborn man so he keeps sharing his hubris with anyone that will read him. So why read him?

Why, because he is not only full of his own thoughts but he is also full of demographic information. And unlike many prognosticators he actually uses scientific means to find and then present his findings. He is a Demographer that specializes in Economics. Demography is the statistical study of all human populations. His thesis is that demography is the principle driver of economic events. He hangs his hat on the aphorism: "Simple Principles Drive Complex Change". Follow the Boomers and the Echo-Boomers--Generation Y.

Dent can be quite convincing. But I would venture to say that as is nearly always the case in such matters Dent is guilty of oversimplification. Yes, there are identifiable cycles in life, in our economic lives. But I would also venture to say that such cycles have a way of nearly always being identified if not after, at least far along their path. Usually too late to be able to do much about the present. And to his credit Dent admits as much and so hedges his bets with the caveat that simply realizing that things happen in cycles is helpful for decisions that one makes in the interim. Sage advice there. If not obvious.

And yet with all the apologetics Dent puts forth for his "Way" of predicting the future, much of which makes very good sense, there is at least one fundamental flaw. Life is not a linear function. Life cannot be reduced to this or that. Life does not play by the rules of Science. Life has its own rules. Think "Jurassic Park". Life is whole and any and all piecemeal attempts to "control" or "predict" it are inherently flawed. Doomed to ultimate failure. But we keep trying. And few try as hard as Dent. This is not to say that modern Quantum Science is still in the Dark Ages, it is just that neither are the Priests of Science yet the Gods they would like to be. That they would like the rest of us to believe they are. Trust me, I am more Scientific than that guy over there. Maybe. Maybe not.

So, if you read this book with an open mind you will in my opinion exponentially increase the amount of knowledge you have about Baby Boomer demographics and its impact on Society-at-large. Nothing wrong with that. But knowledge is not necessarily wisdom. Dents states that there are no new "Inventions" on the horizon to change the path of the major cycles for now and for the immediate future--for the next few decades. How can he know that? Nobody knows that. Maybe General Motors will start making cars that get 400 miles to a gallon of gasoline next year. Maybe some nerd living in his parent's house will have revealed to him in a dream a cure for all Cancers. Maybe someone will figure out how to use "Fusion" to power our planets electric needs.

Fact is most Scientific discoveries have been the result of the intuitive rather than the rational processes of Man. The rational cannot divine the intuitive. The Left Brain can work with the Right, but it cannot take its place. I trust my inner guide more than I do any outside agency where existential matters such as Change are concerned. Modern Social Science remains tied to the Cartesian method and the Kantian paradigm. Social Science is not the be-all to end-all that some would like it to be. But then the same can be said of the so-called Hard Sciences as well. The Left Brain does not have a patent on reality. It just likes to "think" it does. I think, therefore I think I know.

Read this book. It has a lot of very useful and interesting information in my opinion. Just don't take its predictions as anything more than what they are, predictions. No one knows for certain where life may flow. It has a will of its own.

You might like to go to Dent's website to learn more about the "Dent Method" with free access to his "Global Demographic Trends Database".

All you Harry Dent fans out there...please don't shoot me! This is the 3rd Dent book I've read (and probably the last). Don't get me wrong - I have lots of good things to say about this book:

His numerous charts (historical, stocks, real estate, purchasing trends, etc) and analysis of demographic trends (particularly over the last decade) were helpful. Additionally, he spots some fundamental trends that drive our economy, retirement spending trends, etc., which makes this book useful, at least in part, to me.

*I must say, however, that these types of analysis are not unique. In fact many of these same observations are made all the time, and one particular author said much of this 10 years ago (The Next Economy).

But fundamentally, I disagree with the assumptions (methodology) which drive his "predictions". I believe his logic is extremely wobbly.

His method is cyclical analysis. I hear a lot of people on TV repeat this ("the economy runs in cycles"), and I suppose they believe this terminology makes them sound sophisticated. But it doesn't really mean much - it this just a fancy way of saying sometimes things go up, and sometimes things go down? I'm sorry, but this is not very helpful.

What Dent means is that he believes economic history (maybe even all history?) can be understood as smaller cycles within larger cycles - that is, history is a puzzles of interconnected events, if deciphered properly, can predict the future. And that's his primary goal - to predict the future.

I don't believe this is good historical method (i.e., you don't understand the 1970's energy crisis by studying the potato famine), nor is it good political methodology (i.e., you don't predict Osama Bin Laden's next attack by studying Genghis Khan), and I certainly don't think it's good economic methodology either. It may be a good method for a mystic, or a spiritualist, but there's simply zero evidence it works in social sciences or economics. In fact, to my knowledge, his theories (or should I say beliefs?) have only been put to the test twice - by AIM and Mass Mutual, both of which created mutual funds based on Dents predictions. Both went bankrupt. Dent claims that nobody can understand the cycle models as fully as him ... so either he's a terrible author/teacher, or it kindof sounds like a cheap trick the TV psychics use.

One fundamental problem with the "cycles" models is this: if markets are governed by time (30 year commodities cycles, 40 year stock cycles), then WHY DO WE NEED HIM? Why do we need his book? Why can't we just use a calendar to buy/sell?

He contradicts his own cycles theory when he says Bin Laden's 9-11 attack screwed up his previous model (which he predicted 30,000 DOW by 2008). But NASDQ had already crashed before 9-11, and I highly doubt we would have come anywhere close to 30,000, especially with all the expenses of the Iraq war. But all of this contradicts his "cycles" theory - human behavior (and government & corporate behavior) obviously plays at least some role in the markets, right?

It sounds even silly to say, but the stock market is product of human endeavors, governed by human behavior. True, it's extremely complex, but does that mean there's really some unseen force ("magical", mother nature, etc) controlling all this stuff? When you start asking serious questions, this cyclical model sounds like mysticism, not economic analysis.

He claims that his "cycles" theory predicts (or at least takes into account) natural disasters, human behavior, inventions, etc., because these things operate on cycles as well. I think it all sounds a bit nutty, frankly.

Dent claims that there are cycles to explain everything, but we just don't have enough data or recorded history to prove it. This may or may not be true ... but again, this is not sound economic analysis. Asking us to believe in some type of provenance (divine or otherwise) that guides the economy but cannot be seen or proven, again, is just mysticism. Is there a substantive difference between saying that "cycles" control things, versus building an economic model based on Jesus or some other spiritual or mystical force?

Remember that backward predicting is no more reliable than predicting the future, and some of his data are clearly backward predicting. He cites, for example, commodities, etc. from the 16th and 17th centuries to try to prove his cyclical theories - and this is all purely conjecture. We don't have adequate records to make the point he's trying to prove.

I can also say that even though I enjoyed some of his analysis (particularly in the beginning), I actually took almost nothing away from this book. It didn't help at all in informing me about decisions in my stocks or investments, my business, or in real estate.

I believe he provides a message that is "sticky" because he's a very grandiose person, who plays into people's needs to make sense out of things. We tend to try to see order out of chaos. He also is good at mincing words, trying to say that he was right "X"% of the time, and when he was wrong, well...those weren't really official predictions. Again, I believe a lot of his analysis is useful, but his predictions and conclusions are simply a convoluted hypothesis.

Tremendous information in it that makes a lot of sense. The only complaint I have is that the author repeats himself a lot.

This book is not what I thought it would be. A lot of graphs and statistics and not easy reading.

There are some general recommendations but in the whole not too useful to me.

This is better read by economists.

Ultimately, this book will be judged based on how the economy does over the next ten years. The author has made predictions in the past, including some that have not been close to accurate.

The author makes heavy use of economic trends and patterns that appear to be measurable and repeatable over time. Additionally, he suggests how to move money around in the event that his predictions begin to unfold as he expects.

Ultimately, though, this is a very dry read that I wasn't able to work my way through thoroughly. I selected this item when the economy was really facing dire predictions in some media, but it did not maintain my interest.

Just couldn't get into this book.Will try to read when I want to take a nap.

This is a must read book regarding the future. People will soon be forced to wake up and see the reality of what is in store for the US under this administration.It is not going to be anything like the country we grew up in and fought for. Freedoms will be cut more and more and you will find that you are working for nothing and paying the bills for people that don't want to work. As it stands right now 20 year olds will each pay $3000 per year during their (40 year) working career just to pay the interest on the debt this administartion has caused already. Contracts, incentive to get ahead and the American Dream are becoming things of the past.....

This is a sobering look at how circumstances and cycles are coming together for what might well be the worst depression since the 1930s. Everyone owes it to themselves to examine the demographic cycles and projections for the depression that lies ahead. It has plenty of supporting econommic data for those so inclined. At the same time it is an easy read for the non-economist. I suggest you don't rely only what the government is telling you. Read this book to help in your personal and family preparations.

This is definitely not bed-time reading, financial nightmare are sure to follow.

While the book seems well researched and reasoned it is quite heavy reading with abundant charts and stats. Sometimes things are also a bit repetitive or overly detailed. In particular the expected economic trends of a whole slew of countries is presented. This might be of interest to some but seems more than needed for the general reader.

But in the end the book does provide a very plausible outlook for the next 20-30 years and, even if it will not be on the dot, it should still make the reader a more informed economic being.

Like other readers I don't believe anyone can truly prophecy about the future so lets get that out the way immediately. I found this book incredibly informative and it included information that I have never been presented or read before so I found it very useful. I intend to use the book as a "guide" for future decisions mainly because it has confirmed my own beliefs about the direction of our markets and the global economy. I also believe that if anyone had followed Dents general advice years ago they would be so far ahead now they wouldn't even bother reading these posts. I am now reading the previous version and have ordered the earlier version because I feel the content of the book is very worthwhile in making investment decisions. Everyone knows that these books all contain marketing fluff of some sort but an educated reader doesn't just jump in and buy everything on offer before reviewing their own library of knowledge to see if they really need it. I would and I have recommended friends read this book because I found it extremely useful.

Demographic analysis reveals cycles that allow you to see the future. History does repeat itself. In a vague and general sense this seems to be possible. But when the author attempts to be precise and accurate the illusion is shattered. For example, on page 299 he advises: "The best strategy is to sell your present house by September 2009." Much too late!
People who think they know the future get into trouble when they publish an exact number and date. Harry Dent's less precise prediction about housing -- home prices will have to drop 40% - 50% not 10% - 20% -- has a much better chance of turning out to be generally correct. In Seattle, from 1976 to 1981, I was able to buy new condominiums at an average 7.45 price-to-rent ratio (based on data contained in my book: How to Invest in Condominiums). These condos when rented yielded an immediate positive cash flow. In 1986 I purchased my last investment condo with a 14.2 price-to-rent ratio. It had a negative cash flow. The bubble had started for conservative investors. This also suggests that the bubble is far from being fully collapsed and the bottom of the real estate market is nowhere in sight yet (and won't ever be clearly visible without the benefit of hindsight), despite trillion dollar stimulus efforts by the government.

The author makes so many predictions he is bound be correct on some. But how does the reader pick out the good predictions and trust them enough to make an investment (this is assuming you did not buy into Harry's Dow 40,000 forecast and have any money left to invest)?

Most reviews call this an economics book. There is a great deal of that in the book but it is much more than that. In a way Mr. Dent is a futurist of sorts. He takes economic theory and demographic information to make some astounding predictions. These predictions in a way are covering the why on what is happening now in the news. He even goes into the why behind reactions.

Mr. Dent's assumptions are pretty basic. He doesn't say anything to revolutionary at all. The book is very well documented and easy to follow. At times he gets to detailed. There is a chart on about every page.

The main point Mr. Dent makes is simple. We have a bunch of things all going wrong at the same time. The retirement of the baby boom will create a drain on the economy. There will be a whole lot of wage earners leaving the work force. After that Mr. Dent introduces the demographic part of the book. He proves there aren't any people to replace the baby boomers. That alone is enough to cause heart ache. On top of this shift you have a bubble that has burst with some perpetual bust cycle that is way over do. His analysis of these factors is very insightful. His predictions are very scary. He doesn't have a good feel for the future. He feels things are going to get very bad. Mr. Dent does offer some good advice on how to whether the storm though. He also talks about how shifting demographics will impact the country in so many different ways.

This book will make you think. This book will scare you and open up your mind. It will make a lasting impression for sure.

I should kick myself for not reading a little about Dent's background before buying the book. I can't believe someone could fit so much BS in a single book. His BS background speaks for itself: multiple books based on now failed assumptions and a mutual fund that has lost 70% of its value are starters.

I'll also save everyone some time here. Dent makes extremely wild assumptions that span decades with very simple data while claiming credit for predicting virtually EVERYTHING in the past.

He's preying on people new to investing by trying to sell his newsletter in a vague and inaccurate book. Apparently he also believes deflation will be our next biggest problem.

Perhaps the worst book I've ever read. This book is purely fiction, he's not a scientist, he's not in finance, just pure BS.

-Andrew Krone

You have to admire the effort and energy that goes into a book like this. Even if the predictions made turn out to be incomplete or even wrong, the sheer volume of information presented provides a rather amazing overview of statistical factors and data on the world economy, past, present, and future, and on that of many particular countries as well.

It may well be that we are headed for an economic depression over the next few years. The question is whether this is the result of cyclical factors related to demographics, as Mr. Dent contends, or also to some other particularlized factor or set of factors which may be recurrent but chronologically unpredictable. I tend to vote for the latter, on the principle that things happen over and over again, but never exactly the same way twice.

The problem I see with this book is that it attempts to explain economic trends (and other world-historical events such as wars and technological innovation)primarily through an almost mechanical operation of predictable demographic factors, i.e., population growth and age distribution. Although Mr. Dent acknowledges some factors that fall outside a crudely deterministic approach, such as free market values and social attitudes, at times he seems to apply his cyclical analysis in a rather rigid way, as though everything were determined, even hundreds of years in advance, by where one lies along the intersecting rise and fall of various demographic waves. While the effect of cyclical factors cannot be discounted, they probably shouldn't be over-emphasized, either. It must be admitted that Mr. Dent acknowledges the possibility that some of his predictions may allow for divergent outcomes, depending on factors that are currently unpredictable. And that may be the problem with trying to be too precise in predicting the future based on a wave theory.

I'm not sure just how valuable this cyclical approach is in predicting actual historical events. Could a person pondering the next 50 years in the year 1900 have predicted the collapse of what was then a globalized economy, two World Wars, the rise of the Nazis to power, or the Cold War, based on cyclical factors alone?

That said, the advice Mr. Dent gives for surviving and investing over the next few decades seems reasonable, based on conservative assumptions. In particular, he forsees the rise of India as a global economic superpower, based on that country's demographics, which seems logical. Again, though, we have to be sensitive to factors that could derail that country's progress, including war, civil unrest, or a return to a more bureaucratic or socialistic approach to government.

In sum, I found this an interesting book, but I would take its specific predictions with a grain of salt.

While I do not think Dent is any better at making predictions than other "economists", this book is helpful to give the reader more tools as to what to do with their existing financial situation. I don't know if I will specifically follow his investment strategies, but the data he provides helps tremendously in understanding where things could head in the near future.

This is the same guy who predicted the GREAT BOOM right before the stock market tanked 40%. In this book, now that he thinks there's going to be a depression, just wait...

The market will rally.

Buy this book if you want to lose your money!

THE GREAT DEPRESSION AHEAD is an interesting, informative, alarming study of the economy over the next few decades. Harry Dent is best known for his work in population demographics and the impact of predictable cycles of generational spending on the economy.

Harry Dent nails it when he describes his work as being "all about people spending money" including when they spend it and what they buy. Succinct and prescient, this describes the art and science of both the demographer and the economist.

So what is likely in America? Depression, Dent says. A deep, painful, predictable depression which will last until the "echo boomers" emerge on the scene to spend money on stuff, including houses, cars, furniture, and so on. Dent predicts three bubble bursts which will burst in mid to late 2009: real estate (already underway), commodities (including oil and gold) and stocks (after a bear market rally to 9000-11,000).

The real estate market is going to decline to 1996 levels, perhaps lower...as much as 60% lower than present valuations. This market segment will not begin to recover until 2023.

The oil and precious metals markets will rally in 2009 before collapsing into 2010 to dramatically lower levels where they will meet equities, having fallen from their 2009 highs of 9,800-11,000 or so. Stocks will be a poor investment for several years.

The only safe havens will be cash, money markets and perhaps high quality bonds (in the near term). Unemployment will rise above 12-15% (no surprise there). High demand locales like NC, SC, Florida, and AZ will likely recover first as aging boomers retire to warmer, less expensive climes.

Dent also identifies some longer term trends or cycles like the 8 year terrorist cycle, oil and gas cycle, 80 year depression cycle, etc. He even cites a 5,000 year civilization cycle! Who was measuring that 5,000 years ago?

Nonetheless, whether he and his analysts are right about everything, all the time, this is a most interesting, thought-provoking read which provides valuable insights into markets, the economy and America herself.

The Great Depression Ahead is filled with a lot of very good information. Mr. Dent goes to great lengths to support how he is able to forecast future economic events by studying reoccurring events. From this he gives insight and advice on how to survive the expected depression and prosper.

The book is well written and easy to follow.

I'm so glad I checked this out from my local library and saved my money. Skip it.

Dent has provided a much needed service in defining what is happening in society and why it is happening. It can help people make wiser decisions that affect their future. I recommend it highly.

Mr. Dent has extensively researched trends and cycles in all areas of our lives to come up with his predictions. Makes a lot of sense!

This book is overly detailed, repetitive and just boring. Harry Dent at least 20 times in the book tries to sell his newsletter. He also get very political in places throughout the book, especially in the last chapter. At times I felt I was reading a book on global warming not a book on the economy. I was very disappointed in this effort.

The books reads somewhat like a good news, bad news joke in the sense that Dent explains that economic cycles are predictable and the bad news is that our current economic situation will take years for recovery. Dent goes in detail explaining historic cycles of economic highs and lows and based on these patterns that economic depressions are predictable. In addition, Dent explains economic gains and declines based on demographics, population based on age and buying power and innovations. Dent goes into sometimes-minute detail to explain the predictability of an individuals peak buying power and the effect the aging boomers have on the economy as they head in mass to retirement without the financial slack picked up by the too distant echo boomers. Dent provides numerous charts, sometimes endless, demonstrating the same consequences for many countries such as China. Along with the charts are detailed descriptions that are virtual quick reads, since once you pick up the patterns of descriptions, you can look at the charts and pick it up pretty quick. Dent's news is not good for the short term but he offers investment advice over a projected period, his initial news is not good for investing in the stock market. Dent's book is very interesting but with an over 10 year tough economic projection, I just hope he is wrong in regards to the long run.

During the beginning of the current financial meltdown, a large bank in Charlotte cancelled a planned base jump off of their skyscraper headquarters. The image of people jumping off a bank building, they decided, was inappropriate for the current economic climate. Reading this book might make you feel like trying it out anyway, maybe without a 'chute.

To distill Mr. Dent's basic theorem down to its most fundamental, he proposes that the global economy, and hence the valuation of the stock market, is driven by US consumer spending. Since the "Baby Boom" generation has passed its spending peak, which according to Mr. Dent is roughly 40 to 55 years of age, the US and the world as a whole is condemned to an inevitable economic downturn that will last roughly 20 years. In support of his theory, Mr. Dent has provided a raft of charts and graphs, some of which look quite impressive, but don't really provide enough information to be truly useful. Another problem with Mr. Dent's demographic models is that they fail to take technological advances into account. He essentially says that technology doesn't matter, that while technology has improved in the past, it has had minimal impact on the overall economic growth, when viewed in comparison with demographics. There are many who would take issue with this contention, and Mr. Dent doesn't spend a great deal of time investigating and/or refuting contrary theories.

Mr. Dent further says that our traditional investment strategies are all flawed, and that if we follow them, we will wind up losing. He says that his strategies, on the other hand, will allow us to beat the trend and preserve our personal wealth. Mr. Dent is clearly trying to position himself as a contrarian investor. Immediate term, he says, play it safe, then gradually move back into higher growth areas as things shake out. This of course, is not really contrarian at all.

Also Mr. Dent's claims to have been the most accurate economic predictor seem at best to be "cherry picked" data. If Mr. Dent really can see the future, why is he not outperforming Warren Buffet?

In the end, the picture is too grand, the small details too nuanced and the predictions too equivocal for this to be of much value, I think. When I read the book, I was reminded of my college economics professor, a Nobel-prize nominee, telling us of how he got his start in economics. He said that immediately after World War 2, he predicted a recession as wartime spending ended, and at first there was none. So he quietly predicted a recession again, and again, there was none. This continued for several cycles until finally there was a recession which was very short, as the US cranked up spending again for the Korean War. But it didn't matter, he said, that the recession he had predicted only lasted for about year. What was important was that he had predicted it! And he told anyone who would stand still long enough that he was a great economist, because he had predicted a recession. I think Mr. Dent is a similar economic forecaster. He even hedges in his book, and tells everyone to subscribe to his newsletter for regular updates in his predictions. This is not intended to be an indictment of Mr. Dent. He is likely just as accurate a predictor of the economy as any other economist or researcher. The economy is a chaotic system, and what we should realize is that no one can predict the future of such a system. In the end, no matter how educated the guess is, it's still just a guess.

This book is a bold attempt to predict not only the next several decades, but also the next several centuries - at one point, author Harry S. Dent prognosticates about the year 2400. As he mentions, however, he did predict Japan's 1990s economic slump and the U.S. boom that began in 1998. If you are a believer, take cover, because now Dent's predictions are not so rosy. He foresees a major depression followed by a long period of slow growth. He is singing with the great chorus of economic pundits and prophets, the preponderance of whom seem to be chanting a dirge. However, Dent predicts several encouraging points of light in the very long tunnel ahead, and a great new boom starting about 2020-2023. His methodology is distinctive, though not unique. He anchors his analysis in demographic and technology cycles. Readers might or might not share his faith in the existence and predictability of these cycles, keeping in mind that good advice in the past is not an accurate predictor of the future. However, getAbstract notes that even readers who scoff at the notion that one can predict developments over a centuries-long scale might find the author's methodology useful and his investment recommendations worth considering.

This is a book about economic cycles mostly based on demographic trends. The book goes in great detail of variety of technical and statistical cycles with its main theme being the baby boomer spending cycle. This book offers an interesting view on housing prices and it's mean reverting, and inflation following properties. It discusses concepts like, election year cycles, Kondratiev's super cycles and how commodity prices follow long term (30 year) cycles. There is some personal finance planning type discussion that might be helpful to the untrained retail investor.The book recommends moving to cities that will benefit from the economic cycle, and how the current downturn will effect places like California, Michigan.
While the book is full of interesting demographic, technical, statistical, and economic trends that will help the reader think outside the box -it is not well written and perhaps it will be forgotten soon.

Like many of the earlier reviewers of this work, I, too, am not completely unaware of Mr. Dent's previous work. I, too, sense a certain lack of consistency. There is also a constant tone of hedging, like, "This is definitely going to happen in 2010, or maybe 2011, unless, it doesn't." Still, what I do like about Dent's work is that it is a lot "harder" than most books on trends, forecasts, and predictions. He takes into consideration a lot of things that most people do not. As far as I know, he's the only one who accounts for 200-year and 400-year economic cycles in his predictions/analysis. Does that make him more accurate? Probably not. Does that give his predictions more insight? I think so. Whatever you think about his conclusions, there are plenty of facts, charts, and analysis here, so any intelligent person will be able to get something of value out of the 350 pages of facts and speculations. Taking that information and Dent's conclusions to the next level and implementing (or avoiding) them in one's own investment strategy is what is going to help the savvy investor anyway, not relying on one guy's pitch that "the end is near". Ultimately, investing is all about risk versus reward and like many other forms of gambling, boils down to maximizing your percentage chance of "winning" versus losing. Any serious gambler will tell you the only way to increase your winning chances is to have as much information as possible. For that reason, I think investors who ignore Dent do so at their own peril. And since this book is interesting enough, why take that risk?