It is always a pleasure to find an author who can write about complex issues and make the writing lucid and entertaining! Leonard does just this. I recommend this book to anyone who is interested in the forces which influence our lives...

Have you ever flipped a coin 100 times to see the sequence of heads and tails that comes up? If you have, you know that there can be long streaks of heads and tails. Random results that end up 50-50 don't look that way in the short term.

Human perception is such that we like to find patterns where none exist. I remember the CEO of a company I worked for would draw a trend line through one data point with great authority, totally unaware of what he was doing.

More often, we judge by samples of behavior and time that are too short to be representative. Professor Mlodinow does a good job of showing how executives are often fired just before they get their best results, and how seldom the new executive does any better than the prior one.

In sports, we get all excited about streaks. Professor Mlodinow dampens that enthusiasm by pointing out that like streaks can occur randomly. We need to check to see if the streak exceeds the expected degree of variation before deciding that something significant has taken place. (But don't stop cheering on your favorite team and players.)

The book also provides lots of thumbnail sketches of the human side of those who have advanced the science and math behind our ability to measure and understand randomness. In fact, I don't recall a book on this subject with better anecdotes about the scientists and mathematicians. That's the reward in this book if you already know about randomness.

If you know nothing on the subject, this book is the gentlest possible introduction.

Enjoy!

This is an appropriate a bathroom reader. Nothing is decribed in much depth.

Not recommended.

This book was a really fascinating read and though it makes your head hurt at some of the counterintuitive examples given, i will be recommending it strongly to my economics students.

Some unorganized reactions.

The Drunkard's Walk owes much to a classic in this field, Innumeracy by John Paulos. This book borrows much from that work in its discussion of misleading use of probabilities, with at least one story lifted directly from it, and most others coming more indirectly from Innumeracy. To those who have read that book it still offers some in terms of unintuitive probabilities, including a discussion of the infamous Monty Hall problem.

It touches areas that Innumeracy didn't though discussing psychology, statistics, and offering a history of probability/statistics. The historical ranting are rather tedious and most likely already known to the readers of this type of material or unwelcome. The dabbles into psychological aspect of why we have trouble perceiving randomness, among other such issues discussed, provide the most interesting and original aspects of the book.

The book falls very short of its stated goal of revealing how randomness runs our lives. In fact, only his discussions of statistics and anecdotes seem to bring us closer to his goal. The other points are enjoyable to read, but deal little with the supposed purpose of the book.

A good read, mostly for those unfamiliar with the Mathematics, but I find the psychological aspect of the book will make an acceptable read for those who have prior understanding of probability and statistics.

Mlodinow has a good track record of making complicated subjects accessible to the average person. This book extends his track record. As a computational chemist/physicist, I am someone who is very familiar with the idea of randomness. Having done many Monte Carlo simulations myself, I had the thought that our lives are much like Brownian trajectories. That is, the direction our lives take is only partially dictated by our abilities, and the remainder is due to random unforeseeable forces that push us about. This is Mlodinow's thesis in his book which he presents in an easy to read and entertaining manner.

Even with a strong background in math this book renewed my interest in probability. My conclusion is that you will enjoy this book no matter what your exposure probability and statistics.

The author is clearly knowledgeable and tries to explain probability and other mathematical theories clearly with good examples. He also includes a basic history of mathematical thought which I found fascinating. Chapters 9 and 10 depart from the theory-discussion and talk about how randomness impacts our lives and was much easier to understand. I liked Mlodinow's writing style and found his approach very warm and friendly - even if some of the concepts are difficult to understand.

Here's a curious focus on how the cards are dealt, rather than who the dealer is. Despite all the erudite reviews, I believe there is an unfortunate omission of the factors resulting from crazy behavior. When the drunk drinks, he gets drunk. He KNOWS he'll reap disaster. But exercising his own willpower, he drinks anyway; he gets drunk anyway; and he reaps disaster any way.Cured! Proven Help for Alcoholics and Addicts. Then the drunk returns again to repeat the march back to the vomit and the mire. Mathematics may look on all this as random. But there is a completely different approach. Early AAs favored the Book of James and considered it absolutely essential to their program.The James Club and the Original A.A. Program's Absolute Essentials. Why? For one thing, its very first chapter presents the compelling choice. One can choose, with unwavering belief, to seek God's wisdom, strength, and guidance. Or he can choose to pursue temptation, enticement, disaster and death. The answer is still part of the first chapter. "Do not err, my beloved brethren." "Be ye doers of the word, not hearers only, deceiving your own selves." Self-deception is not random. It's nuts. Yielding to temptation is not random. It's nuts. Dying at the end of the process is not random. It's assured. And it's nuts too. Well, that's the choice - God or transgression of God's rules. Drunkenness is a no no. The drinker pursues it at his peril if he is an alcoholic.God and Alcoholism: Our Growing Opportunity in the 21st Century. And even alcoholism is not random. It may come from genes. It may come from bad friends and bad behavior. It may come from stress and distress. Or it may come from chemical imbalance. The scientists like to experiment with controlled conditions. The alcoholics like to drink in uncontrolled conditions. And it's crazy. So then comes the Book of James again with the early A.A. solution: James 4:7 says: "Submit yourselves therefore to God; resist the devil, and he will flee from you." In other words, if you can't hack it yourself, humble yourselves in the sight of the Lord and He will lift you up (James 4:10).When Early AAs Were Cured and Why, Third Edition. If all this seems too "spiritual" or too "religious," that's OK with me. But he who overlooks the wiles of the Adversary and the very present availability of the Creator's help is nut making a random choice in a random situation. He's just failing to put on the whole armor of God in recognition of the slings and arrows of the Adversary. So I'd add some other factors to this picture: temptation, the devil, and God. And their contrasting roles were well laid out in John 10:10.Why Early A.A. Succeeded: The Good Book in Alcoholics Anonymous Yesterday and Today God Bless, Dick B.

First, if you are bad at math,like me, most of this book is beyond reach or can at best be half understood. While he writes well, and makes a great effort to be clear, his talents can't overcome my brain wiring.(I have read over the Monty Hall deal three times and still don't get it). But when my knowledge and his explanations sync, there are great insights : regression to the mean(in any series of random events an exrtraordinary one is most likely to be followed by an ordinary one by chance; the insight is used in explaining how we confuse cause and effect); good thoughts on availability and confirmation bias; thoughts on why some businesses do well and others do not(same territory as "The Halo Effect"). But the gem is the last chapter, its title the same as the book's, where he says:give yourself a break, stuff happens both bad and good for no reason other than it does, but never forget that success may come your way if you are open to the universe and keep swinging away. "What I've learned , above all, is to keep marching forward because the best news is that since chance does play a role, one important factor in success is under our control: the number of at bats, the number of chances taken, the number of opportunities seized...or as IBM pioneer Thomas Watson said,"If you want to succeed, double your failure rate." The chapter is worth the price of the book.

this is a great book, but it made my brain hurt.

basically, the drunkard's walk is a history of the mathematical study of randomness, including physics, probability, normal distribution, and other concepts. but, really, it's a look at the role that randomness plays in our lives, and how most things are quantifiably less random than they may seem.

there were dozens of times, while reading, that i thought, that makes complete sense, but i can't imagine that i'm going to remember it. this was often because the proof of the theory made sense at an objective level when explained, but was counter-intuitive to real life and regular ol' human thinking. a great example of this is the author's extended explanation of the marilyn vos savant "let's make a deal" problem. marilyn vos savant writes a column in parade magazine where she answers questions from readers, using her "world's record highest iq". she famously responded to a question, years ago, that posed this problem:
if a contestant on "let's make a deal" (the 70s game show) were given three doors to choose from, and told that a new car was behind one of them, and lousy prizes behind the other two; then, after choosing a door, and having monty hall reveal one of the remaining doors as a loser prize and given the opportunity to shift choice on the remaining two, should the contestant make the change? her response was that, statistically -- yes, the odds are better if the contestant changes her answer.

people freaked at her response, including lots of professional mathematicians, who (wrongly) argued that, with two remaining choices, the chances are still 50/50 that the car is behind the door of the contestant's original choosing.

the proof of this fallacy is all based on probability computations. the contestant's original choice had a 33% chance of being correct -- or 1 in 3. but monty hall removed one of those three (knowing which doors had the good and loser prizes). so, sticking with the original choice still leaves the original probability of 1 in 3. but changing choices raises the probability to 1 in 2 -- better odds.

the author acknowledges that while this kind of proof is true, and mathematically observable, it's contrary to how our brains are wired to consider options.

that said, it was this kind of story - the book has hundreds of them -- and the author's wittiness, that kept me reading through the brain strain.

oh, btw, the title refers to the term scientists use to describe the path of atoms and sub-atomic particles -- seemingly random as they carom off each other in a willy-nilly path. ultimately, this path is not actually random, but is merely beyond our ability to compute, based on the absurd quantity of possibilities rising from interactions with other moving particles.

An intriguing book with fresh perspectives. While being entertaining to read, it is simultaneously very thought-provoking and informative with fascinating "historical background side trips" that add color, depth, and interest to the chapters.

I personally found it extremely insightful. It offers more than a simple explanation of probability and how randomness can affect our lives. It is so thought-provoking as to inspire (me anyway) to review fundamental assumptions about the world and my place in it.

It is not for those who are unprepared to examine personal assumptions about how life works-- some grounding in the statistical sciences would probably be a good background as well. Nevertheless, I would encourage any thoughtful, inquisitive person to read this book. Easily one of my favorites of all time.

Instead of repeating other reviewers, let's focus on other content.

Arguments about the astronomical improbably of a DNA chance match are disingenuous. A false match can also occur because of lab error, and this is far, far more likely than a genuine DNA chance match.

Mlodinow illustrates the Bayesian principle: "...the probability that A will occur if B occurs will generally differ from the probability that B will occur if A occurs." (p. 117) About 1 in 10,000 heterosexual non-IV-drug-abusing white males are infected with HIV. As for tests of HIV infection, the rate of false negatives is about zero, and that of false positives is 1 in 1,000. So, out of 10,000 tested subjects, there will be 9, 989 negatives. Of the 11 positives, 10 will be false and 1 will be true. So only 1 in 11 individuals who test positive for HIV actually are infected with HIV. (pp. 115-116)

During WWII, German V-2 rockets often hit near each other, prompting fears that the Germans had perfected pinpoint accuracy in their targeting. It turned out that the clusters of hits were random. Most geographical clusters of cancer occurrence also are random clusters.

We learn about such things as regression toward the mean, Pascal's wager, the gambler's fallacy, and the scratched (and therefore biased) roulette wheels at Monte Carlo. Also, election recounts in very close elections are bound to differ with each recount owing solely to small random errors operating on millions and millions of votes. So no recount is necessarily more accurate than the original count.

Life expectancy applies to groups, not individuals. For instance, if the life expectancy of a 90 year-old is 6 years, it only tells us that half of 90-year olds will still be alive at 96. It does not tell us which particular 90 year-old individual will still be alive at 96.

When there are hundreds of coin tosses, it is common for strings of consecutive "heads" and "tails" to arise solely by chance. Likewise, a string of good luck or bad luck in our lives can be completely random, yet easily misinterpreted as something meaningful.

When experimental subjects are told that, by pressing a button, they are controlling actually randomly-flashing lights, they readily believe it. We want to believe that we are in control because a lack of control, or perceived lack of control, leads to stress. This is especially true in extreme situations. For instance, concentration-camp victims who survived tended to be those who established some measure of control over their horrible experiences.

This is a wonderful book for the non-technical person. It's more than just a discussion of random processes. It's a history of how the theory was developed over several hundred years, the fundamental laws upon which the theory is based, and a sprinkling of problems the solution of which defy common sense. Mr. Miodinow is trained as a scientist, but has a style of writing that is similar to some of the great authors of science like Richard Fynman and Carl Sagan who wrote books for the layman. A must read book by all.

I was just curious to understand how randomness ruled our lives. Though i found the book giving several examples and combinations which explain the randomness at the end of it I was left a little confused as to what the book actually wanted to convey to an average reader like me who wants to understand this.
I found the book more technical and though it was explained in a normal manner I still could not get through each page without reading them several times. It takes time to sink in the matter and understand this book.
I would say its average because certain chapters were good but over all after finishing the book I still dont have my answersto randomness

This is a wonderful book for understanding how random life is and how we can still live with that knowledge.

I love books, all books, but I especially love science books. This book was more than a science book though. It was inspirational. If you read through all the way to the end, then you cannot help but be inspired. Unless of course, you are a control freak. If you are one of those types of people, then you may be a bit discouraged to learn that your controlling ways are all in vain. But, if you are a optimist or an optimist in the making, then this is the book for you.

A famous French mathematician of the eighteenth century, Jean Le Rond d'Alembert, wrote several books on probability. In one, he analyzed what happens if you toss two coins. You can either get zero heads, or one, or two, he reasoned, so the chance of any of these three possibilities happening was one in three. He can easily be shown to be wrong, but he wasn't the first or last mathematician to be flummoxed by probability, so what hope do the rest of us have? The problem is even more daunting - probability, chance, chaos, or randomness has extraordinary power within many human endeavors, and none of us has intuitive capacity to calculate all odds correctly. In _The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives_ (Pantheon), Leonard Mlodinow reviews the history of how mathematicians came to an understanding of calculating probability, but he also shows how little any of us know about the actual odds. Wine ratings, CEO performance evaluations, movie studio grosses, home runs, and more are all under the encompassing sway of randomness, and while we are eager to attribute success (or failure) to the actions of humans in their endeavors, results are often not a good measurement for judging the competence of human effort.

It was really in the sixteenth century that probability got mathematized, and of course it was by a mathematician who liked to gamble. Gerolamo Cardano wrote the _Book on Games of Chance_ which showed how one could rationally analyze all the ways the dice could fall (people were using cube dice by then, not bones) and thus what numbers were more likely. Cardano would have shown d'Alembert where his error lay. Tossing two coins gives a "sample space" of head-head, head-tail, tail-head, and tail-tail, so there are four equally probable outcomes, not three. It's the same sort of calculation for figuring odds on girls and boys. There are subtleties, however, depending on how you define your sample space. If a woman has two children, and one is a girl, the odds that the other child is a girl are not fifty-fifty. The sample space you are dealing with is girl-girl, girl-boy, and boy-girl; by specifying one is a girl, you eliminate the possibility of boy-boy. Each of the remaining three possibilities have equal likelihoods, and only one has a girl as that second child, so the odds in this case are one out of three. There are not only puzzles here, but real-world examples like the O.J. Simpson trial. When lawyer Alan Dershowitz was faced with the prosecution's depiction of Simpson as a wife abuser, he countered with statistics that showed that in America, although millions of wives are battered every year, only 1 of 2,500 is murdered. Something swayed that jury, and perhaps this was part of it. What Dershowitz didn't give is the more relevant percentage odds: 90% of battered women who are murdered are killed by their abusers. There are fascinating ideas here about variations in normal populations and variations in measurement. Mlodinow shows that we often overestimate how much control people have. He draws many examples from sports, winetasting, or the business world, and demonstrates conclusively that success or failure depends heavily on pure chance, even though we like to give credit or blame to people who are only nominally in charge.

Mlodinow keeps things light. He is careful with how much mathematics he inflicts upon the reader. In discussing the famous Monty Hall problem, he advises that it requires no mathematical training, but "... it does require some careful logical thought, so if you are reading this while watching _Simpsons_ reruns, you might want to postpone one activity or the other. The good news is it goes on for only a few pages." In one lesson after another, he shows that pure random variation, our ability to see patterns when there is only chaos, and our eagerness to attribute outcomes to action rather than to chance cause us to think we have much more control than we really do. This might be a pessimistic message; as Mlodinow shows in many examples, circumstances beyond our control are what are really in control. This ought, however, to help us be gentler with ourselves and with our neighbors. It also shows, as he points out, that with chance playing such a large role, we have to seize every opportunity we can, and he quotes IBM pioneer Thomas Watson: "If you want to succeed, double your failure rate."

The Drunkards walk is a great book that explains most things about statistics that most people never learned or ignore .It gets a little technical sometimes but overall has lots of insightful information .Decisions makers just need to pay more attention .

'The Drunkard's Walk' includes a history of probability and statistics and relates the subject to modern-day life. In some respects, it is disappointing not to see any equations for combinations or probabilities, even in an appendix [...]. What is included is an excellent background in the logic behind setting up probabilities such as Bayes' theorem applied to medical statistics, when the likelihood of a disease is small.
Mlodinow's writing is entertaining and well suited for readers with a formal background in statistics and probability.

I've always been fascinated and intrigued by statistics and the laws of probability. If you too are into that sort of thing (or even if you're not), you will definitely find this book interesting and actually quite fun to read. The content really gets your mind thinking and actually expands ones views on life itself and how things work.

Real Life Dramas - Volume One

Darren G. Burton

If you're not versed in probability this is an excellent book to introduce you to the history and importance of probability in daily life. Its an easy and interesting read. Much of the book however is dedicated to explaining mathematical basics & history. If you already know what a normal distribution is, this book falls a little short in really linking randomness and how we perceive success. Only one or two chapters at the end are devoted to this.

I was waiting for someone to write an in-depth and fascinating book about the wild and wierd aspects of probability theory in our lives. It is broader and more informative than Nassim Taleb's Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets and avoids the bitterness infused all through Taleb's book.

But for practical consequences of probability theory I prefer Hubbard's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business. Hubbard takes the more fascinating aspects of probability theory, combines it with the odd errors of human thought processes, and prescribes a method to crack open many mysteries in business and governement with measurements.

Consider books like Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game and Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and we see a wave of popular books in the last few years about what used to be considered the "dull" field of statistics. I'm glad the American public is choosing to become more literate in this field.

A very enjoyable read. The author takes what is a very complicated topic and makes it easy to understand and very interesting.

A Drunkard's Walk is a very well written view of not only of randomness, as suggested by the title, but also gives the reader an insight on probability and statistics that will open eyes and raise questions about the "certainty" that our public figures give us, based upon dubious analysis. This is a must read for anyone who believes we should question conclusions that are fed to us, rather than giving way to blind acceptance.

Although this was a difficult topic for a person not up to date with math, it was very informative, pointing out the great effect that randomness has on one's life. Both frightening and reassuring

Excellent book. In essence a probability/statistics 101 class presented in a very entertaining and humorous fashion. A compelling argument for the role chance plays in our lives and at the same time the power of persistence. A must read.

An amazing traverse across the landscape of randomness that makes sense to scientist and layperson alike. I thought Euclid's Window was readable and clear, but Drunkard's Walk makes sense of an incredibly random world in a concise, clear, and thoughtful way. A "should read" for everyone in a management job who is looking for those insights that could propel your operations beyond the ordinary by understanding the universe as it is. The examples are concrete and compelling.

The author says nothing new on the topic, nor does he say it in a way that is apt to make a dent in the "willful consciousness" of many who insist on a world of clear-cut cause and effect or on a Divine Will that keeps its eye not merely on a sparrow but on a nation's military actions or on human behaviors provoking retributions (hurricanes, etc.) upon its godless practitioners. In all such instances, the distinction between cause-effect thinking and predestined events that happen by necessity is lost. Instead, it all comes down to the pragmatic need of an inherently egocentric human nature to impose order where circumstances may not justify it.

The author writes to the layman, making the language of statistics, probability, randomness a fascinating read. It's clear that he's well aware of the fallacies and delusions (and consequent harm) to which most of us are easy prey. But he leaves it to the reader to draw any philosophical-theological inferences about the need for greater humility. His immediate goal is to help the reader understand the distinction between 1. the "common-sense" logic employed by self-serving finite beings coping with problems in the material world and 2. a "scientific method" that takes nothing for granted in a universe of perpetual flux. More miraculous than either the accomplishments of the romantic hero or the intercessions of a supreme being (everyday stuff for most of us) is the rare discovery that two things (or "events" in the spatial-temporal order) suspected of being connected (a hypothesis) in fact cannot be shown "not" to have such a relationship (the proof).

Such a small yield is unlikely to satisfy most of us, let alone a creationist or a supporter of intelligent design--in other words, it's not more propagandist "proof-texting" and weird science; it's "real" science. And those who take it upon themselves to help us understand the universe as it is, merit a reader's undivided attention. Highly recommended for the genuinely curious.

The author says nothing new on the topic, nor does he say it in a way that is apt to make a dent in the "willful consciousness" of many who insist on a world of clear-cut cause and effect or on a Divine Will that keeps its eye not merely on the eye of the sparrow but on a nation's military actions or on human behaviors likely to incur retributions (hurricanes, etc.) upon its godless practitioners. In all such instances, the distinction between cause-effect thinking and predestined events that happen by necessity is lost. Instead, it all comes down to the pragmatic need of an inherently egocentric human nature to impose order where circumstances may not justify it.

The author writes to the layman, making the language of statistics, probability, randomness a fascinating read. It's clear that he's well aware of the fallacies and delusions (and consequent harm) to which most of us are easy prey. But he leaves it to the reader to draw any philosophical-theological inferences about the need for greater humility. His immediate goal is to help the reader understand the distinction between 1. the "common-sense" logic employed by self-serving finite beings coping with problems in the material world and 2. a "scientific method" that takes nothing for granted in a universe of perpetual flux. More miraculous than either the accomplishments of the romantic hero or the intercessions of a supreme being (everyday stuff for most of us) is the rare discovery that two things (or "events" in the spatial-temporal order) suspected of being connected (a hypothesis) in fact cannot be shown "not" to have such a relationship (the proof).

Such a small yield is unlikely to satisfy most of us, let alone a creationist or a supporter of intelligent design--in other words, it's not more propagandist "proof-texting" and weird science; it's "real" science. And those who take it upon themselves to help us understand the universe as it is, merit a reader's undivided attention. Highly recommended for the genuinely curious.

I do not know how to explain this book because it is so good. Its lessons are useful in business strategy, in evaluating the Iraq war, in deciding whether the Feds should lower interest rates and in planning one's own career. It is simply put the Best Book of the Year.

The author covers the growth and evolution of theories of probability, what he calls theories of randomness, and ties it together with anecdotes one cannot find in any other book on the subject. Yes, it is just as readable as Peter Bernstein's classic Against the Gods and far more thoughtful (and less arogant) than Fooled by Randomness by Nasim Taleb. The author is the co-author with Stephen Hawking of the Briefer History of Time and unless he has a ghost writer, is easily the best writer of non-fiction of the serious kind. His prose is perfect, his choice of anecdotes appropriate, his domain expertise unmatched.

The book ends unexpectedly but poignantly, about his aunt's awful fate at a Nazi death camp. Honestly, I respect the author's prerogative but I wish it was in an epilogue. It is too serious a subject and takes the mind to another dimension, to be read at the last minute, that too in a book with so much to think about anyway.

THIS SHOULD BE AN ADDITIONAL READING IN EVERY COURSE IN BUSINESS SCHOOL, SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY INSTITUTION, BESIDES IN EVERY COLLEGE

This smart book will make you think. Academic yet easy to read, it explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition fights that fact. I found this point fascinating. It never occurred to me that our brains naturally want to see patterns and order, and life doesn't necessarily work like that.

It's comforting to think of an orderly world, with everything in its place, running according to plan. It dovetails into our yearning for meaning and control, and the need to feel that we are important. The idea of randomness is frightening. If the world is shaped without conscious decision, it's a pretty chilly prospect.

Author Leonard Mlodinow examines the importance of randomness in diverse situations, including Las Vegas roulette tables, "Let's Make a Deal," the career of Bruce Willis, and the Warsaw ghetto after Hitler invaded Poland. The author does a good job explaining how chance and luck are vital factors in how things turn out.

The cover has a nice touch. On the dust jacket, several die-cut holes reveal letters on the hardback underneath. The letters are the R and D in "Drunkard's," the A in "Walk," the N in "Randomness," the O in "Our" and the M in Mlodinow. These letters are connected by a thin red line. They spell out "RANDOM."

Here's the chapter list:

1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths
3. Finding Your Way Through a Space of Possibilities
4. Tracking the Pathways to Success
5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers
6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies
7. Measurement and the Law of Errors
8. The Order in Chaos
9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
10. The Drunkard's Walk

This type of book is not my department. What a flood of words about the role of randomness in daily life when you compare the book with straight and lucid books such as Mike Orkin's book "What are the odds" or Henk Tijms' book "Understanding Probability".

Promising prologue "... when chance is involved, people's thought processes are often seriously flawed .... [this book] is about the principles that govern chance, the development of those ideas, and the way they play out in business, medicine, economics, sports, ..." but a disappointing book. The book consists of a range of topics already well covered in a dozen previous popular science style books: history of probability (Cardano, Pascal, Bernoulli, Laplace, de Moivre) and of demographic and economic data; statistical logic (Bayes rule and false positives/negatives; Galton and the regression fallacy, normal curve and measurement error, mistaking random variation as being caused); overstating predictability in business affairs (past success doesn't ensure future success) and perennials such as Monty Hall, the gambler's fallacy, and hot hands.

These topics are presented in a way that's easy to read -- historical stories, anecdotes and experiments, with almost no mathematics. So it's a perfectly acceptable read if you haven't seen any of this material before before, but it doesn't bring any novel content or viewpoint to the table. Other books are equally informative and well written but have more interesting individual focus and panache:
Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health shows hows to add analysis to anecdote,
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk has more intellectual discipline (staying focused on the current topic),
Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities gives a thorough treatment of implications of textbook theory,
The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari gives snippets of contemporary research,
Chances Are: Adventures in Probability has less hackneyed history,
and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is an engagingly opinionated view of chance in the stock market and life.

I just love books like this - especially when they're as well-written as this one. The author, a physicist, proceeds to show the reader how randomness plays a much greater role in everyday life than one might think. As he discusses the basics of probability and statistics, he provides wonderful illustrations from fields as wide-ranging as sports, medicine, psychology, the stock market, etc., etc. He does an excellent job in driving home the fact that the true probability of events is not intuitive. Perhaps because of this anti-intuitiveness, I had to read a few paragraphs more than once to allow the point being made to sink in. One enigma that is particularly well explained is the Monty Hall (Let's Make a Deal) problem. The writing style is clear, accessible, very friendly, quite authoritative, engaging and often very witty. This book can be enjoyed by absolutely everyone, but I suspect that math and science buffs will savor it the most. By the way, the math-phobic need not fear: the book does not contain a single mathematical formula.