Beyond Oil : The View from Hubbert's Peak

  Author:    Kenneth S. Deffeyes
  ISBN:    080902957X
  Sales Rank:    44765
  Published:    2006-06-13
  Publisher:    Hill and Wang
  # Pages:    224
  Binding:    Paperback
  Avg. Rating:    5.0 based on 46 reviews
  Used Offers:    21 from $7.99
  Amazon Price:    $11.20
  (Data above last updated:  2008-12-17 06:09:18 EST)
  
  
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Beyond Oil : The View from Hubbert's Peak
  
“This book explains both why the decline of our most precious fuel is inevitable and how challenging it will be to cope with what comes next.”—Richard E. Smalley, University Professor, Rice University, and 1996 Nobel laureate

With world oil production about to peak and inexorably head toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question, once thought to address a fairly remote contingency, has become ever more urgent, as a spate of books has drawn increased public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth’s supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil, he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, utilizing the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.

“The bad news in this book is made bearable by the author’s witty, conversational writing style. If my college econ textbooks had been written this way, I might have learned economics.” —Rupert Cutler, The Roanoke Times
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09-23-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Beyond Oil
Reviewer Permalink
Should be required reading especially for anyone who is ignorant or foolish enough to believe "Drill here, drill now" is the solution. The writing is plain English, not geological or oil & gas jargon. Hubbert's peak is carefully explained, and the explanation does not require much understanding of math. The author also explores other energy sources in addition to oil & gas. The basic message is that we need other energy sources now and we had better get cracking.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-12-17 06:12:55 EST)
08-20-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Timely book
Reviewer Permalink
I thought this book sets out the peak oil theory and supporting information in a highly readable way. You can argue about whether it applies to just light sweet crude or to oil in all its forms but the distinction is not that relevant in the short term. I found it both readable and very thought provoking. I have been long oil for awhile as a result and that has been very successful.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-09-23 02:56:46 EST)
06-27-08 5 3\3
(Hide Review...)  Excellent discussion of Hubbert and his technical exposition
Reviewer Permalink
Deffeyes has written an excellent book on M K Hubbert's 1969 published predictions for future world oil production.The most interesting chapter is chapter 3.It covers the basic logistics model that Hubbert showed fit the data like a glove fitting your hand.Deffeyes has uncovered a small error in Hubbert's exposition.It is presented on p.51.Deffeyes correctly states that production,discoveries,and hits started together."Hits have to initially grow faster than discoveries.Discoveries have to initially grow faster than production"(p.49) Hits has the highest peak and peaked about 1960.Discoveries then has the next highest peak and peaked about 1980.Production(discoveries and hits)peaked around 2000.

The conclusion is that "the major theoretical conclusion is that a straight line requires that production(discoveries,hits) depends linearly on the fraction of oil that is unproduced(undiscovered,unhit)".(Deffeyes,p.51).The major prediction is that the price of oil will be going up constantly.Possible remedies are conservation,more(much more)fuel efficient cars, nuclear power,solar power,wind power,and cogeneration.The one non solution is to try to drill our way out of the problem.This is not possible given the technical constraints of the problem.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-08-21 03:10:11 EST)
04-02-08 4 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Must-have for Peak Oil enthusiasts
Reviewer Permalink
While the list of books on this topic continues to grow all the time, this is probably one of the must-have books if you are interested in the topic of Peak Oil. Deffeyes is often quoted in other works, as is his former colleague, H. King Hubbert. Deffeyes comes off as a wise expert when talking about issues directly related to his area of expertise, and an honest layman when talking about things he's not as much of an expert on. This give the book an air of authenticity. It is a fairly short book, but manages to give a good background on the different energy industries related to the question of oil and its possible substitutes. It also gives a pretty succinct summary of the state of reserves and production which can go a long way towards clarifying many common misconceptions, such as the idea that we can drill our way out of the crisis. Deffeyes predicted that peak oil would hit on Thanksgiving Day of 2005. Interestingly, he maintains a web page on which he comments on the latest events. So far he has yet to retract his predictions.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-06-26 11:37:36 EST)
03-29-08 4 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  outstanding synopsis of energy alternatives
Reviewer Permalink
A perfect introduction to energy for well educated readers. Short, clear, to the point chapters on the various options from traditional to alternative, full of pithy observations and good humor. Not alarmist, just fact based, clear headed and long sighted.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-04-02 03:10:56 EST)
02-23-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Why are electric vehicles all the rage?
Reviewer Permalink
This book explains why GM is changing it's entire manufacturing process to run all 9 million cars it makes on electric motors and have an electric drive train. With the E - Flex design GM is betting the firm on, they can use a different generator as circumstances demand (eg compressed air, fuel cell, E85, diesel, CNG, etc). Beyond Oil explains why.
It also explains why ALL major car companies are moving to hybrids and PHEV's now.
After reading this why would you buy a car that runs only on petrol?
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-03-30 02:57:52 EST)
02-05-08 5 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Very well done and researched.
Reviewer Permalink
This will not tell you how to survive without oil, but it confirms the truth about peak oil and the inevitable decline in production. He outlines many alternatives and their problems. Great book.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-02-22 03:00:48 EST)
12-27-07 4 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Worth a Read
Reviewer Permalink
Broadly entertaining with a good solid chapter on Hubbert's curves that will make you take it more seriously, if you do not already. Interesting insight into the techniques of fossil fuel extraction and potential for future growth, or lack thereof. Perspective is that of petroleum geologist, so knowledge and interest of renewable options is limited.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2008-02-06 03:01:04 EST)
12-21-07 4 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Beyond oil review
Reviewer Permalink
I found that the book was very informative and factual. I work in the oil industry and the author had his facts right on the specifics of the oil industry. He got a little deeper into the biology than I wished to read. But all in all, I am glad I read the book.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-12-28 03:09:57 EST)
08-30-07 3 1\1
(Hide Review...)  Very good and very disappointing
Reviewer Permalink
The book is very good, i.e. very instructing, in the part where the author has most expertise, i.e. oil field geology.
If you want to understand the theory behing the often referred-to Hubbert's peak, this is the book to read. The author, i.e. the professor, takes you through it, one step at a time, and even if you are not a science major, you think you get most of it, at least enough of it to buy the author's 3 main conclusions, i.e. that oil production has peaked on Thanksgiving day 2005 or thereabout, that the decline is inevitable from that date onward and that oil & gas production will have ceased altogether by the middle of the present century.
As to the balance of the book, the author warns the reader that his undertanding of economics and political science is rather limited; and he actually delivers on his warning. His views on the future of the non-oil energy sources, i.e. nuclear, coal, wind, etc. are quite superficial, alredy somewhat dated and not particularly enlighting.
In a nutshell, read chapters 1 to 3, or possibly 4, and skip the rest.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-12-22 03:10:54 EST)
07-01-07 4 1\1
(Hide Review...)  Alternatives to Oil?
Reviewer Permalink
4 Stars.

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes, is an excellent accounting of the coming oil depletion and some quasi-alternative geological energy sources. Mr. Deffeyes' experience and expertise is brought to bear on the problem of finding short-term alternatives to crude oil, recognizing that the development of clean energy can't happen fast enough to address the problem.

Unfortunately, Mr. Deffeyes is right -- it's too late for market forces or political will to solve our short-term energy problems. We're stuck with "alternative" fossil fuels (bonus points if you can say that with a straight face) for the time being. With this in mind, Beyond Oil offers an interesting survey of the options available to us.

This is the only book on oil depletion I've seen that includes an actual description of M. King Hubbert's methodology (or, at least, a variation on it that provides similar results). The reasoning behind the method is sound, and the empirical data shows a clear trend -- suggesting that perhaps Hubbert's Peak has already passed.

Also recommended is The Party's Over: Oil, War And The Fate Of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-08-31 00:03:36 EST)
05-01-07 3 3\3
(Hide Review...)  Interesting but almost a review of university chemistry
Reviewer Permalink
I enjoyed the style and attitude of this book, because it was written by a teaching geologist who adds color to the overall story. But I found it pretty dry and inaccessible in places, because of the chemistry and geology terminology that was used. It felt like a review of my university chemistry in many places.

What bothered me most about the book was that it made lots of claims and statements, and talked about lots of chemistry/geology/energy stuff, without using the descriptive information to make a point that advanced the narrative story. I'm not disputing the truth of the statements, but after reading pages and pages of stuff, I was left wondering, "So what? What's the point here? How does this tie in with the story line?"

This book is definitely not like most other peak oil books that I've read. And for sure its not the best one, or the most accessible one. I think Twilight in the Desert is a far better book for arguing the case for peak oil. The primary point of this book "is the disruption of our energy supplies over the next five to ten years," and it does a reasonable job at doing that.

I think the strong points of the book are the explanations of the practical aspects of the "real world" oil and gas industry--the oil window depth, how drilling depth is related to oil and gas discovery, why some oils are different than others, how tar sands oil is produced, and so on. Probably the paperback version of the book is worth its price on the basis of this book alone. If you want to see lots of data that proves peak oil is here, try Twilight in the Desert. But if you want to know more about the practical aspects of discovering and producing oil and gas, this is a good book for that. (BTW, it's definitely not about how to invest around peak oil.)
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-08-01 03:06:01 EST)
03-24-07 5 1\2
(Hide Review...)  Enjoyable and informative
Reviewer Permalink
This is a great book. Prof. Deffeyes obviously knows his stuff. He displays an incredible depth and breadth of knowledge about all forms of energy production and a whole lot more. Given the amount of information in the book, it's nothing short of amazing how much fun it is to read. His plain-spoken style and humorous comments make it a pleasure from beginning to end.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-08-01 03:06:01 EST)
03-17-07 5 1\1
(Hide Review...)  Beyond Petroleum!
Reviewer Permalink
Welcome to the post-Hubbert peak, the world beyond oil!

"Business as usual is not in the cards," writes author Kenneth Deffeyes, Professor Emeritus at Princeton University and a recognized expert on energy. "Whether we like it or not, there will be major rearrangements in the world economy. It would be more orderly if we were to generate a blueprint for a society constrained by the availability of resources. Then we need a noncatastrophic pathway that takes us from here to that blueprint."

Unlike his previous book ("Hubbert's Peak. The Impending World Oil Shortage") "Beyond Oil" is my more readable and accessable to the layman. Deffeyes reviews the origins of oil and Hubbert's calculations, but then goes on to discuss gas, coal, tar sands and heavy oil, uranium, and hydrogen. He then sums up the world's energy situation in a chapter he calls "The Big Picture".

Deffeyes argues that the world has already reached its peak oil production and that henceforth oil production can only decline.

There are, however, shortcomings to Deffeyes methodology. He greatly underestimates, in my opinion, the impact of ethynol. Currently, ethynol comprises 2.5 percent of America's energy (about 5 billion barrels a year) and this is due to double within the next two years. Yes, it is not as efficient as oil to produce - it takes more energy to produce ethynol than the ethynol itself produces - but America has land and corn (and other crops) to produce ethynol in relative abundance.

The author also fails to discuss in any depth the development of synthetic fuels, which the U.S. government has been pursuing very aggressively and, if reports are to be believe, successfully.

The author also writes briefly and incorrectly about the growing world population, a topic well outside his realm of expertise. Recent trends in demographics indicate that the population of the world will actually stabilize at around 9 billion and then decline in around 2050. The problem will not be an exploding population; the problem will be a shortage of labor worldwide.

Still, this is a tremendously well written book. And to his credit Deffeyes discusses what the individual American citizen should do to make his or her life easier. (The author begins this portion of the book with the following sentence: "Lets have a private talk around the kitchen table.")

In short, this book is everything that "Hubbert's Peak" is not.

And its message is clear: We are finally running out of oil and as a result, we are headed for major dislocations in the world's economy.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-04-12 03:27:32 EST)
02-16-07 4 3\3
(Hide Review...)  Powering the way into our future
Reviewer Permalink
The author, Kenneth Deffeyes is a geologist and former employee of the oil industry. As such, he knows more about the oil industry than many politicians and commentators. Using his knowledge, he has put forth a follow-up to his previous book on Hubbert's Peak. In short, the book is basically two ideas combined into one. The first idea is that the world's supply of obtainable oil is finite and will run out. This point is argued by referring to Hubbert's Peak, a concept that says that the amount of oil taken out of the ground per time looks like a bell curve, and that the US is over the [...] of this curve in that we have passed the point of maximum oil production. Second, the author explores a series of alternative energy sources such as nuclear, natural gas, coal, and fuel cells. In this part, he shows the advantages and disadvantages of each of these alternatives, and what technological advances and political changes would be needed to more fully exploit these them.

The overall feel of the book is a frank discussion of America's energy future. The facts discussed are probably covered in other books, but this work presents them in a quick and brisk manner. All in all, a good read and worth the time.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-04-12 03:27:32 EST)
02-15-07 4 3\3
(Hide Review...)  Powering the way into our future
Reviewer Permalink
The author, Kenneth Deffeyes is a geologist and former employee of the oil industry. As such, he knows more about the oil industry than many politicians and commentators. Using his knowledge, he has put forth a follow-up to his previous book on Hubbert's Peak. In short, the book is basically two ideas combined into one. The first idea is that the world's supply of obtainable oil is finite and will run out. This point is argued by referring to Hubbert's Peak, a concept that says that the amount of oil taken out of the ground per time looks like a bell curve, and that the US is over the [...] of this curve in that we have passed the point of maximum oil production. Second, the author explores a series of alternative energy sources such as nuclear, natural gas, coal, and fuel cells. In this part, he shows the advantages and disadvantages of each of these alternatives, and what technological advances and political changes would be needed to more fully exploit these them.

The overall feel of the book is a frank discussion of America's energy future. The facts discussed are probably covered in other books, but this work presents them in a quick and brisk manner. All in all, a good read and worth the time.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-04-08 07:55:49 EST)
11-10-06 3 0\2
(Hide Review...)  Oil - long winded overkill
Reviewer Permalink
The book starts off with a stark and interesting read - but after chapter 5 you will be taken into a long-winded version of how oil is made....could be more condensed into a few pages instead of a few chapters! people who buy this book have an interest in the outcomes and what lack of oil means for us today - not really interested in the other fluff. still - the book is worth reading if you're interested.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2007-02-17 13:24:47 EST)
09-27-06 5 2\2
(Hide Review...)  A fine introduction to fossil fuels and the consequences of their depletion.
Reviewer Permalink
For everyone who wants a quick and credible answer to the question, "Are we really running out of fossil fuels?", this is the book. Kenneth Deffeyes explains why your life and the lives of your children may soon become unimaginably different from what our comfortable generation expects. His book will make you a better citizen and a cocktail party expert, while providing you with a few evenings of top quality entertainment.

For most of the book, Deffeyes talks about what he knows best, which is predicting the availability of fossil fuels. He covers all of them: oil, gas, and coal, including their strange variations and hopeful new sources. Included is the history and technique of fossil fuels - especially oil - and its astounding political effects.

A petroleum geologist who began his career working with M. King Hubbert, Deffeyes provides the easiest interpretation of Hubbert's method of predicting the depletion of resources. Deffeyes doesn't explain Hubbert's underlying rationale, which was murky, but he clarifies the "Hubbert curve" in a wonderful way. This analysis, along with its limitations, should be understood by every educated citizen.

The big question is whether Hubbert's analysis could be wrong or irrelevant, so that we may be saved by new sources of hydrocarbon energy. Deffeyes covers the known and conjectured alternatives. A few proven alternatives are not big enough to make much difference. One huge resource, methane hydrates, is tentatively estimated to contain many times more energy than all fossil fuels combined. The trouble is, nobody knows how to extract it. Tar sands, another huge resource, consume precious natural gas to extract the oil, and they are an environmental horror. Oil shale ("neither oil nor shale") is a vast store of organic material that has defied attempts to extract it with a significant energy profit. Deffeyes deals briefly with Thomas Gold's conjecture of deep supplies of primordial methane, and he is unconvinced.

He then gives a brief gloss on uranium, perhaps the most important alternative to fossil fuels. His main contribution is to clarify how much uranium is actually available. Deffeyes himself played a role in making this information public.

The last of his topics is a genuflection to the "hydrogen economy." While suggesting a variety of applications for this less-than-zero-sum game, his telling adds little hope that hydrogen will help much in the long run.

He ends with a few pages of musing on the future, where unfortunately he steps outside his expertise. Like most experts on the supply side of energy, he seriously underestimates the potential and necessity of energy efficiency. This common error doesn't seriously tarnish an otherwise exemplary exposition.

As the author of a book on energy efficiency that is eight times longer than Deffeyes', I envy his ability to cover so much in a book that can be read over a weekend. While sharing the lecture circuit with Deffeyes, I saw him as a Falstaffian figure with a jolly sense of humor about a grim subject. Retired as a Princeton professor, he is proud of having spent most of his career working with roustabouts. His personality shines through in his writing style, which is a hoot.

The one major flaw is a misleading title. This book says essentially nothing about the period "beyond oil," when civilization must be fully converted to new energy sources and extreme efficiency. Its main focus is the present declining period of fossil fuels, when we may still be able to make the transition successfully. As Deffeyes makes clear, that transition must be made quickly.
(Review Data Last Updated: 2006-11-01 03:57:10 EST)
09-12-06 4 (NA)
(Hide Review...)  Great Book!
Reviewer Permalink
Really got me thinking and was filled with very useful, helpful, informative, but easy and simple to understand tricks. One of my favorites. A+
(Review Data Last Updated: 2006-09-12 06:53:26 EST)
  
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